Summary and Key Points: China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has reportedly launched its most advanced diesel-electric submarine, sparking interest and concern among naval analysts. Though details are scarce, satellite images suggest the new submarine could be a variant of the Type 039A-C, featuring advanced technologies like a Vertical Launch System (VLS).
-If confirmed, the VLS would significantly enhance the submarine's capabilities, allowing it to carry a variety of missiles, including land attack and anti-ship ballistic missiles.
-This development reflects China's continued expansion and modernization of its submarine fleet, raising questions about the strategic implications for regional and global security.
Earlier this year, China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) reportedly launched its most advanced diesel-electric submarine to date. The boat was floated out in April, but few details about the submarine are actually known. China, unlike most nations, launches its submarines with little to no fanfare. Beijing has made no official announcement about the submarine, and details are sparse.
The submarine was first spotted in satellite photos taken soon after it was launched. It could be a new variant of the Type 039A-C.
Tom Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submariner and naval analyst, noted the presence of the boat in July, and posted on X: "I recently acquired this interesting image of the shipyard from 26 April 2024. On the left, you can see what appears to be a freshly-launched Hangor II-class submarine, the 1st of 8 being built for Pakistan. You can also see the other, possibly new class of boat."
The PLAN continues to expand its fleet of non-nuclear-powered submarines. Newsweek cited U.S. Department of Defense estimates that 25 or more Yuan-class submarines could be produced by the end of 2025, while Beijing could operate as many as 80 submarines by the mid-2030s.
Naval analyst H I Sutton, writing for Naval News on Wednesday, further reported that, "The new boat is larger than existing ones and is the first in the country to feature X-form rudders. There are indications that it may have a vertical launch system (VLS)."
Sutton indicated the newly launched boat "has similar proportions to its forward section as the Yuan." That could suggest that the submarine's forward hull, where the sonar and torpedo room are located, would also be similar. But the hull section behind the sub's sail was "significantly longer," which could suggest the presence of a VLS, something that certainly wasn't present on existing variants of the PLAN's Yuan class.
A VLS is common on surface ships – such as the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Ticonderoga-class cruisers – and on nuclear-powered submarines. Many of America’s and Russia's nuclear-powered submarines are equipped with VLS.
The presence of a VLS is far less common on diesel-electric boats, which are smaller. Introducing a VLS onto a conventionally powered boat would add to the types of armament the attack submarines carry. These could include land attack missiles too large to launch through a boat's torpedo tubes, as well as anti-ship ballistic missiles.
"The trend in non-nuclear submarines has been set by the South Korean KSS-III and Israeli Drakon Class. If this new submarine does have a VLS behind the sail it can likely accommodate between four and eight missiles, depending on their diameter," wrote Sutton. "China has been experimenting with VLS on submarines since the introduction of the Type-032 Qing class test boat. This has four small diameter VLS tubes forward of the sail. These were recently modified with a raised deck over them, suggesting a new missile is being tested."
No doubt the U.S. Navy – and likely other powers – will be watching closely, trying to glean any additional insight on this new PLAN submarine.
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.
Image Credit: DoD Image of older Chinese Kilo-Class Submarine.
