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Certain aspects of recent aggressive Chinese behavior around some of Taiwan's most vulnerable islands hint at how it could seize those territories within as little as six months, war analysts warn.
A short-of-war coercion campaign could raise questions about how the US and its allies should respond, a key element in maintaining Taiwan's resistance to Chinese control.
A new report from The Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute details what a potential Chinese effort to seize Taiwan's Kinmen Islands could look like. The report assesses a recent spike in aggressive actions by the Chinese Coast Guard this year and notes how China could escalate its actions to take control of the island group within just six months.
Earlier this year, the people of Taiwan elected the Democratic Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te as president, a historic move that highlighted voters' concerns about curbing Chinese hostility and preserving Taiwan's autonomy.
Lai's win was unprecedented, marking a third consecutive presidential term for the DPP. It was also the least favorable outcome for China; Beijing has branded Lai a separatist and, in response to his win, pursued a series of punishments aimed at Taiwan.
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Of those, the report said, the most notable appeared to be that China "launched new efforts to erode Taiwan's control over its outlying islands," switching from previously respecting Taiwan's "de facto jurisdiction in waters around Kinmen and Matsu" to denying Taiwan's claim over those areas.
During the exercises, China asserted "its right to conduct law enforcement patrols in these waters at will," the report said, noting a capsizing incident off Kinmen as a catalyst for developments involving the boarding, searching, and detaining of ships.
Kinmen and Matsu are two vulnerable islands in close proximity to mainland China, sitting off the coast of Xiamen and Fuzhou, respectively. Over the past few months, Chinese activities, particularly by the Coast Guard, around them have increased, notably spiking in May during Lai's inauguration,as well as during a massive Chinese military drill surrounding Taiwan later.
China's regular incursions into Taiwan's waters are a concern, but the report says that an escalatory turning point could involve China using its Coast Guard "to set up a 'quarantine' zone around Kinmen and prevent the delivery of any additional weapons or 'contraband' to the islands"
In that case, China could then "search all Taiwanese vessels passing into this zone to confiscate supposed 'contraband' and arrest 'separatists.' The quarantine still allows most civilian ships to pass after an inspection but blocks the passage of most ROC [Republic of China] government vessels," the report said.
Unlike a blockade, an act of war which prevents any and all movement whatsoever into an area, a quarantine, such as the US approach during the Cuban Missile Crisis, wouldn't be considered the same way, as they restrict only the movements of certain goods.
The line between the two is notably thin and, in a China-Taiwan scenario, would probably come down to controlling the narrative and how information about the incident was disseminated. It's difficult to know how those actions might be perceived.
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China could maintain the status of a quarantine by framing its actions around its efforts to prevent the movement of weapons and what it calls 'contraband.' With its quarantine, China could effectively cut off Kinmen and/or Matsu's access, communications, and connections to the rest of Taiwan, leaving them isolated and potentially forcing them to succumb to Beijing's control.
Perhaps the biggest problem here is that such an event would put the US and its allies in a grey area where the proper response is potentially less clear to decision-makers. In the near-term, this could be further complicated by US domestic politics.
Another report from the conflict and security experts at the Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute published earlier this year said the US was unprepared for a "coercion campaign that remains far short of invasion but nevertheless brings Taiwan under Beijing's control," noting that many elements of such a campaign were already underway.
Concerning the potential for the quarantine of Kinmen and Matsu in the near term, though, there are a few steps the US must take to deter — and possibly counter — Chinese actions, the new report said.
The US, Taiwan, and their partners should, the report argued, be doing the following: "pre-bunking" Chinese "propaganda narratives that justify such a campaign, strengthening the resilience of communication infrastructure in Taiwan's outlying territories, and bolstering Taiwan's maritime law enforcement around the islands."
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The report's authors also argue the US should also beef up its defense commitment to Taiwan, both to alleviate the Taiwanese people's fears the US won't come to its aid and to communicate deterrence to Beijing. And in case of an attempt to quarantine or a successful quarantine, the US should come to Taiwan's assistance and significantly increase "its troop deployments and arms sales to Taiwan, coordinating joint coast guard patrols with Taiwan and other partners, and amending relevant laws to help protect Taiwan's outlying islands from further coercion," the report said.
In this situation, Washington finds itself in a precarious situation, needing to maintain a working relationship with China while showing support for Taiwan, but any failures in defending Taiwan could have profound implications for other alliances.
"The United States' failure to effectively respond to such a crisis would have cascading negative effects on the faith of US allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines in the US defensive umbrella," the authors note. Therefore, "maintaining Taiwanese sovereignty over these islands is thus a precarious but vital task."
