Watched an interview with Professor Steve Hanke, Applied Economics, John Hopkins University. Says he is non-political, but during the course of the interview admitted he was a democrat and usually votes that way, but he is not an "enthused" democrat. Rather his focus is on what is good for the US/world economy. And, he says the ONLY metric that matters, the one drives all the others is THE MONEY SUPPLY.
Basically, how much money is available in the economy, how much of that is "free" i.e. changing hands in commerce, and how much is in reserve (sitting in banks) ready to be deployed, drives ALL other economic metrics. Interest rates, unemployment/employment stats, GDP, etc. all 100% dependent on "the money supply." So, the Federal Reserve, he says, are a bunch of clueless bozos watching interest rates' change thinking it is driven by jobs' numbers, consumerism. But those are only metrics also 100% dependent on the money supply.
Hanke is saying the US economy is heading toward a recession, which will hit in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025. It is inevitable. He also laughed at the interviewer trying to lead him to say that Biden/Harris have done, are doing a good job with the economy, or why hasn't there been a recession already? Reason: Biden artificially pumped $3.2 trillion into the economy, which represented a 27% increase in the money supply, an all-time high in US history, and the economy has been on that "sugar-high" for three years, but now it's all about to crash as that huge infusion of money, again artificially introduced, is running out. Usually, in normal good times, the money supply in the US might increase by 6%, year over year. Often, throughout history, when the economy was sluggish, but not in a recession, the money supply might increase 3-4%. Also, Hanke said "they" have changed the rules as to what constitutes a recession, and we are, in fact, in a recession right now, but the politicians in DC are covering it up since this is an election year.
After watching this interview I searched and found an article Hanke (with a Dr. Greenwood, economist) wrote, published in 2012, during obummer's second term...very interesting. Had nothing positive to say about obummer's economy. In that article he cited other times when the money supply was artificially inflated, it happened 3 times (now 4 times thanks to Biden), and each one led to a deep recession, and in one case, 1929, a depression. Remember, obummer had his stimulus thingy, but that was in the range of $225 billion, a lot less than Biden's $3.2 trillion, and the economy was able to absorb that. Also, remember obummer's economy was very sluggish, actually in and out of recession, except there was a cover-up protecting obummer's presidency.
All of this to say, get ready for a deep recession, especially if Trump takes office in January, 2025. The Swamp won't protect Trump's legacy, will return to the old ways of defining a recession, and bam! Hanke says, regardless who is POTUS, the recession is coming and there's nothing anyone, any politician can do to stop it. A recession, and a deep one in this case, has to happen so the US economy can shake off the effects of Biden's huge infusion into the money supply.
