The Republicans could not have been in a better position months away from the November US elections. In early July the party looked united behind Donald Trump on the heels of a disappointing debate by incumbent president Joe Biden.
Biden’s performance was so bad that his own party was publicly and privately pushing him to step down. The Democrats were in disarray, with real concerns that if Biden did step down, the party would not be able to agree on who should succeed him.
Just over a month later, and after one of the most expertly laid campaign rollouts, the Democrats have provided an electrifying convention that has not only been filled with dynamic speeches, but managed to unite around the candidacy of Kamala Harris and her vice presidential nominee, Tim Walz.
Unity did not appear to be possible weeks ago. The progressive wing of the Democratic party was incensed with Biden’s policies and support for Israel, a conflict that has resulted in a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Moderates were also concerned that Biden was making too many concessions to the left.
In spite of the pro-Palestinian protests taking place in Chicago, this was nothing like the chaotic 1968 Democratic convention where protests over the Vietnam war left one person dead, and over 700 people injured. Nor is this similar to the convention of 2016, when Bernie Sanders’ supporters walked out in protest after Hillary Clinton won the contentious nomination.
Thus far, the Democrats have ensured that the focus is on their messages of hope, optimism and unity, all of which have helped maintain their momentum.
Democrats have also focused on the message of freedom, describing an optimistic vision of the future. They hope this uplifting message will resonate with those who worry about a divided US.
To this end, the wide array of voices given a platform to speak at the convention has included prominent Republicans, such as former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham.
In particular, one of the issues that has fired up Democrats the most has been the assault on reproductive rights. A woman’s right to choose was often taken for granted among supporters before the fateful supreme court ruling in 2022 that overturned Roe v Wade, the constitutional right to abortion.
This issue is one that Harris and others in the Democratic party are adept at talking about and rallying around.
The Democrats have also benefited from a surprisingly deep bench of electrifying speakers. Night one featured Hillary Clinton, who spoke about breaking the glass ceiling. The night closed with an emotional speech by Biden, who claimed that choosing Harris was the best decision he ever made.
Night two did not disappoint for the Democrats either. Both Michelle and Barack Obama captivated the audience, with Barack joking that he was the only one “stupid enough” to speak after Michelle.
In a bit of a departure from her “when they go low, we go high” speech, Michelle eviscerated Trump, portraying him as an entitled product of generational wealth. Barack Obama accused him of being a petty whiny old man obsessed with conspiracy theories and crowd size.
In both cases, they used humour to skewer him. This is something that really gets under Trump’s skin, as famously demonstrated by Seth Meyers’s White House correspondents’ dinner speech in 2011 (which supposedly motivated Trump to run for office.
While both Obamas fired up the crowd, Barack also tapped into themes that might resonate with Americans outside of the Democratic party.
Night three showcased Democratic party elder statesman, Bill Clinton. But the spotlight was on Harris’ running mate Tim Walz, who focused mostly on his relatable role as a football coach, claiming he was more comfortable giving pep talks and riling up his team, than giving political speeches.
Polling thus far seems to indicate that all this is working. Prior to Harris taking over the campaign, Biden was behind in all of the national polls by about 4-5 points, and was behind in the key swing states in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a similar margin. According to some polling, Harris is now leading in five swing states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Harris has also benefited from a huge boon in campaign funds, raising a whopping US$500 million (£381 million) in just one month. Biden was struggling to maintain donors, while Trump had been benefiting from campaign momentum after the debate, his time in court and attempted assassination.
Whether or not Democrats can maintain the momentum, to some extent depends on how Trump and the Republicans react. A sign that things are not going well for Trump is how unhinged he seems during his press conferences and rallies, focusing on trivial topics such as him being more attractive than Harris, and being bewildered by the size of a pack of breath mints as evidence of inflation.
But it will also depend on how well Harris handles the next 10 weeks or so. Her campaign has so far expertly negotiated social media to give them the edge. She will also need to do well in the debate with Trump on September 10, and to hold a few successful press conferences, which she has been avoiding.
If she can manage this, while also maintaining a strong ground game of grassroots efforts to get voters registered and ready to vote, we might see a surprise win for the Democrats, after all.
Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
