This week, the “Dog Days of Summer” will be put to the test, with nothing new on the scale of “Alien: Romulus” or other big franchise movies from earlier in the summer. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
That term, which also represents the heat and humidity typical of August, comes from the fact that many studios will randomly dump their movies into the latter part of August in hopes of getting them off their roster before the fall. The weekend just before Labor Day has always historically been proof of that fact, with a scant few exceptions.
This weekend offers two new genre movies that may have done better at any other time of the year, but will be struggling against the returning fare, including “Alien: Romulus,” which should win the weekend despite a significant drop, probably to less than $20 million.
Actor Zoë Kravitz makes her directorial debut with the dark comedic thriller “Blink Twice.” It stars Channing Tatum as tech mogul Slater King, who meets two young women, Naomi Ackie‘s Frida and Alia Shawkat‘s Jess, at a gala and invites them to a part on his private island where nefarious things are under foot. The movie also stars Adria Arjona from “Hit Man,” Haley Joel Osment, Levon Hawke, Simon Rex, Christian Slater, Geena Davis and Kyle MacLachlan, an impressive mix of older and younger talent that Kravitz managed to assemble.
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Tatum is clearly the big draw for the movie, with the premise likely appealing to the same younger female audience that might go see one of his movies, even though his character is a bit of an anomaly. Tatum’s most recent movie, “Fly me to the Moon” with Scarlett Johansson, didn’t do that great, but he also made a cameo in one of the biggest movies of the summer, and had a decent 2022 with “The Lost City” and “Dog.” He’s very much considered an A-lister at this point.
“Blink Twice” continues the recent tradition of rich people going on luxurious holidays where people start dying, as seen in “The Menu,” which opened with $9 million in 2022, and Rian Johnson‘s “Glass Onion,” the rare Netflix movie to report its $13 million Thanksgiving opening box office, opening just one week after “The Menu.” Another good example of this is the Emmy-winning HBO series “The White Lotus.”
Reviews for “Blink Twice” have been decent, currently at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the trailers and marketing have been similarly solid. Opening in 3,000 or more theaters, this should be able to open with between $8 and $10 million, bearing in mind that it’s a pretty terrible weekend to release any new movie.
Bill Skarsgård (aka Pennywise from the “It” movies) takes on the role of Eric Draven in a modern remake of “The Crow,” directed by Rupert Sanders, which has been in development seemingly for decades. Based on the comic books from James O’Barr, the original 1994 “The Crow” was a relative hit and became a goth touchstone, despite (or maybe due to) the tragic gunshot death of star Brandon Lee during production. There were four sequels, some released as television movies, the last of them being in 2005, and since then, many filmmakers and studios have tried to revive the character to no avail.
Also starring FKA twigs, there may be some questions whether this is meant to be a reboot or is more of a “legacy sequel.” It’s definitely the former, and while older fans might be jaded about that very idea of remaking it, younger moviegoers might not even know or just not care about the original movie and character. I do not expect the reviews (embargoed until Thursday night) to be very kind either.
Opening in roughly 2,600 theaters, “The Crow” normally would do well based on its connections to a popular ’90s film a la “Twisters.” In this case, it could rake in less than $10 million, which would put it behind “Blink Twice” for fourth place.
Sony’s faith-based Affirm Films imprint is releasing “The Forge,” directed by Alex Kendrick (“Courageous,” “Fireproof”) and starring Aspen Kennedy as Isaiah, a high school graduate who begins planning for his future, hoping to make better life decisions. Kendrick’s previous faith films, including 2019’s “Overlooker,” released by Affirm on this same weekend with an $8.1 million in a similar 1,700 theaters, have done quite well with three movies grossing more than $33 million. Other than “Sound of Freedom,” faith-based films haven’t done as well in recent years, so expect this to open more in the $5 million range, potentially benefitting from its PG rating.
The other movie to keep an eye on is the action-thriller “Strange Darling” from new distributor Magenta Light Studios (Bob Yari’s new company), starring Kyle Gallner from “Smile” and Willa Fitzgerald (“Scream: The TV Series”) as a serial killer and their victim. The movie received an astounding 100% on Rotten Tomatoes since it debuted at Fantastic Fest last fall, and it could get a moderately wide release, but might not take too much business away from the other two genre releases.
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Oddly, Lionsgate is also releasing the R-rated crime comedy “Greedy People” wide theatrically, probably in fewer theaters than “The Crow,” though. It stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Himesh Patel as two small town police officers who come across a lot of money after an accidental death that has many people trying to get their hands on their newfound wealth. The movie also stars Lilly James, Tim Blake Nelson and Joey Lauren Adams, and it’s directed by Potsy Ponciroli, who directed Nelson in the indie Western, “Old Henry,” which also was about someone finding a lot of cash. This will probably open in less than 1,000 theaters this weekend and might struggle to hit a million or slightly more.
In turn, Sony Pictures Classics is releasing Nathan Silver‘s “Between the Temples,” starring Jason Schwartzman, Carol Kane, and Dolly De Leon (from the Oscar-nominated “Triangle of Sadness”) into an unknown number of theaters nationwide, but probably in the lower range of 500 to 700 theaters. In the comedy, Schwartzman plays a cantor who takes on an older bat-mitzvah student in Kane, and the two form a fast friendship. This modern-day “Harold and Maude” received mostly raves out of Sundance, but it might be a tougher sell for audiences outside major cities.
All of the above movies open on Friday, and by Sunday, we probably should know how most of them did, so check back then for our recap.
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