Director Sean Baker‘s “Anora” won the grand prize, the Palme d’Or, at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. It was the first American film to claim top honors at the prestigious international competition since “The Tree of Life” in 2011. Does that mean it’s in good shape going into Oscar season? Despite its world renown, Cannes is hit-and-miss when it comes to anointing later awards contenders, often selecting art films that don’t end up resonating with the industry insiders in the academy. But in recent years the Oscars have been on the same page as the Cannes jury more often.
Three of the last four Palme winners ended up with Best Picture nominations at the Oscars: “Parasite” (2019), “Triangle of Sadness” (2022) and “Anatomy of a Fall” (2023). “Parasite” ended up winning its Oscar race, becoming the first film not in the English language to claim the award. But that much agreement between Cannes and the academy is unusual. Before “Parasite” you have to go back another seven years to find a Cannes champ that competed for the top Oscar: “Amour” (2012). And only two other Palme champs went on to compete for Best Picture in the 21st century: “The Pianist” (2002) and “The Tree of Life” (2011).
The motion picture academy is more global than it used to be; after the notorious 2012 LA Times report revealed the overwhelmingly white and male demographics of the academy, the organization moved to expand its ranks, adding more ethnically and culturally diverse artists to the academy’s membership. That might have contributed to the increasing success of international titles like “Drive My Car” (2021), “All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) and “The Zone of Interest” (2023), and it could be good news for an internationally embraced film like “Anora.”
As of this writing, based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, “Anora” ranks fifth for Best Picture, putting it comfortably in line for a nomination. What’s more, it’s predicted to win by one Expert journalist, four of our Top 24 Users and three of our All-Star Top 24. Elsewhere, Baker ranks second for Best Director, and breakout star Mikey Madison is second in the race for Best Actress for her performance as a stripper in a relationship with the son of a Russian oligarch.
This wouldn’t be Baker’s first brush with Oscar, though he hasn’t had nearly as much success with voters as we’re expecting him to have now. Most of his films have been snubbed entirely by the academy, with one exception: “The Florida Project” (2017), which earned Willem Dafoe a bid for Best Supporting Actor. But it’s not unusual for a filmmaker to suddenly break through after a track record of snubs. For instance, Jonathan Glazer had a similar track record with only one Best Supporting Actor nomination to his name (Ben Kingsley in 2000’s “Sexy Beast”) before his breakthrough with the aforementioned “Zone of Interest.” It only takes one film to get invited to the party. For Baker, that film might have come.
