The Royals have a very real shot at a post-season run.
The Royals started out a nice story. In an offseason where few teams spent money, reporters and fans applauded the Royals for actually investing in a team that lost 106 games last year, even though they were probably also thinking the money was probably spent on a lost cause. But the team got off to a good start, then kept above .500 for much of the summer. Fans kept waiting for the other shoe to drop, but the Royals are still wearing both of their cleats, and stomping on opponents with them. The Royals have gone from “aww, isn’t it nice that this team isn’t god awful anymore” to “hey wait a minute, they might actually be legit good.”
The Royals are tied for the second Wild Card spot, enjoy a 4.5 game cushion between them and the Red Sox who are chasing them for the final post-season spot, and are just 2.5 games out of first place. Heck, they’re just three games back of having the best record in the American League. They are tied for the best record in the American League since the All-Star break. Their +111 run differential is second-best in baseball. You know the Royals are a threat now when other teams are accusing them of cheating.
The playoffs seemed like a pipe dream before the season, but every week they become more and more of a reality. Fangraphs puts their odds of making the playoffs at just under 80 percent. The Royals are more likely to make the playoffs than the Chiefs are to win the division, according to most sportsbooks.
They certainly don’t have things locked up. The Royals have the fourth-strongest remaining schedule with upcoming series against the Phillies, Astros, Yankees, Twins, and seven head-to-head matchups with the first-place Guardians. But the Royals don’t have to do well, they just have to hold their ground. The season is now a 37-game sprint. It will likely take about 87 wins to make the playoffs, let’s say 88 wins to be sure. The Royals would have to finish just 18-19 to win 88 games this year. Basically, avoid a losing streak as they’ve done all year - their longest losing streak is four games - and avoid sweeps - they’ve been swept just once all year.
“Well, so what?” some might say, “why get my hopes up when they’ll quickly lose in the postseason?” First of all, playoff baseball is pretty neat, even if the experience is short! And it could be a huge learning experience for the young players on the team, particularly Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. But moreover, we don’t know if the playoff experience will be short! The Royals were certainly not world-beaters heading into the 2014 playoffs when they made an amazing run to the World Series. That was a flawed team that had mediocre starting pitching and a bottom-half offense, but in a short series, made the best use of their high-contact approach, speed, defense and excellent bullpen.
This year, the Royals have arguably the best starting pitching trio in baseball. They’re the only team with three 3 rWAR pitchers in their rotation - heck the White Sox of all teams are the only other AL team that has TWO 3 rWAR pitchers (Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, who is no longer on the team). What team wants to face Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Brady Singer in a short series? Heck, the Royals have the luxury of starting Michael Wacha and using Singer as a multi-inning reliever.
And like 2014, when two Wild Card teams made the World Series, the league is wide open this year. No team currently has a .600 winning percentage - the last time that happened was 2014. The Royals have flaws, but so do every other AL contender. The Yankees rotation has been awful lately, their lineup lacks depth, and they have closer issues. Baltimore’s pitching staff is running on fumes. Cleveland’s rotation has been uncharacteristically poor and their offense has significantly cooled down. The Twins have been hit with injuries. The Astros have had injuries to their rotation and have holes in their lineup. Boston’s bullpen has blown up.
And these teams have added pressure and expectations. The Yankees don’t win, they have to hear it from their fans. The Orioles don’t win, they start hearing about how the rebuild isn’t paying off. The Astros don’t win, their window might close. The Guardians don’t win, that adds another year to the longest championship drought in baseball. The Twins don’t win, they have to hear about their sustained post-season failures.
The Royals have an MVP candidate, a former World Series MVP, a gregarious slugging first baseman who keeps things light, a great rotation, a pocket full of chips, and nothing to lose. They weren’t supposed to be here, they’re playing with house money.
Why not us?
