“Shōgun” could be about to join an exclusive club at the Emmys by winning Best Drama Series for its debut season. The FX show, adapted from James Clavell‘s 1975 novel of the same name, was created by Justin Marks and Rachel Kondo and follows various factions competing for power in the Sengoku period of Japan. At the center of the story is Cosmo Jarvis as a marooned sailor who ends up tied to the powerful Lord Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada). “Shōgun” has been a critical juggernaut this year with a 99% score on Rotten Tomatoes and writers queing up to praise the show.
Daniel Fienberg (The Hollywood Reporter) observed: “‘Shōgun’ had ‘prestige’ written all over it. Yet the care taken by creators Justin Marks and Rachel Kondo to deliver this story without having it reek of appropriation and voyeurism was evident throughout.”
Kelly Lawler (USA Today) proclaimed: “Beautiful, rich and deeply compelling, it might just scratch that ‘Game of Thrones’ itch you’ve had since the HBO fantasy folded in 2019.”
Dan Einav (Financial Times) noted: “The painstaking effort to root this vast saga in the specificities of era and culture is part of what makes Shōgun so compelling. But the examination of power and pride, personal ambition and tribal loyalty, ensures this story is…timeless and universal.”
Kristen Baldwin (Entertainment Weekly) opined: “Gorgeous and immersive from the very first frame, the new ‘Shōgun’ is a stunning epic that never lets big-budget set pieces overshadow the human drama at its core.”
“Shōgun” has been nominated for eight Primetime Emmys and 17 Creative Arts Emmys. It contends for Best Drama Series alongside “The Crown,” “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” “Slow Horses,” “The Morning Show,” “Fallout,” “The Gilded Age,” and “3 Body Problem.”
We are predicting that it will prevail and take home this top prize for its inaugural season, something only these 15 other TV shows have managed to do in Emmys history.
*We are not including the 1965 ceremony as the categories were combined into Outstanding Program Achievements in Entertainment and there were four winners.
There are a couple of notes to make here: “Upstairs, Downstairs” won in 1974 for both seasons one and two. “Elizabeth R” won in 1972 as a limited series. “The Bold Ones: The Senator” won in 1971 as an entire series.
A third of those instances of a show winning this prize for its first season have happened this century: “The West Wing,” “Lost,” “Mad Men,” “Homeland,” and “The Handmaid’s Tale.” Modern Emmy voters are obviously open to embracing a new show, which bodes well for “Shōgun.” What also works well for the show is how many other major nominations it has received. Sanada is nominated for Best Drama Actor while Anna Sawai is cited for Best Drama Actress and both Tadanobu Asano and Takehiro Hira are recognized for Best Drama Supporting Actor. The show is also up for writing and directing.
We are predicting that Sanada and Sawai will win their races and we also expect “Shōgun” to win both Best Drama Directing (Frederick E. O. Toye) and Best Drama Writing (Kondo and Caillin Puente). If the show wins those major prizes, it makes sense that it will also win Best Drama Series. In fact, it would be strange to see the show win those four key races and not take home the top prize.
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