Joe Biden failed in three of his four runs for president. Donald Trump is on a path to chalk up his second loss in three tries.
Biden escaped Harold Stassen’s perpetual loser legacy only because the Democratic Party elite in 2020 feared Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) as their nominee, and the American people disliked Trump slightly more than they did Biden that year.
This year, both men, with the mental and physical limitations that often come with old age, refused to step aside and make way for younger blood until Biden was finally forced out by party leaders last month. Trump still perseveres despite an attempt on his life, popular dissatisfaction with his convention speech and pick of J.D. Vance, and an increasingly incoherent and faltering campaign.
Dropping poll numbers nationally and in the handful of swing states are a harbinger of a decisive Trump loss and a potentially violent reaction from his dedicated followers. Trump, for once, should show magnanimity and real patriotism while also saving himself from humiliation. He should step aside and call on the Republican National Committee to organize a short, virtual campaign to choose a new nominee rivaling what the Democrats impressively pulled off after Biden’s withdrawal.
A Harris-Walz victory would reflect an ironic turn of events from the 2020 decision of Democrats to rally around Biden as the antidote to a looming Sanders nomination. His explicit campaign for “democratic socialism” was seen as a path toward certain defeat. Now, Harris, the fervent progressive Biden chose for the vice presidency to appease the left wing of the Democratic Party, is poised to win the presidency by softening and even reversing many of her previous positions, at least for the purpose of winning the election. The Democrats and the nation may end up with the Sanders brand of socialism they rejected in 2020.
Trump said in the June debate that he only decided to run in 2024 because Biden was seeking a second term and “he’s destroying our country.” With that rationale now eliminated, Trump is free to let his party choose another nominee and allow him to retire at one of his “beautiful places.” Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Mike Pence, Robert O’Brien, Condoleeza Rice, and other highly-qualified Republicans could step in and change the 2024 dynamic once again.
If Trump decides to remain the GOP candidate and continues his campaign on its present course, GOP pollster Frank Luntz has called it “political suicide.” Not only would it hand the White House back to the Democrats, but it would also probably doom Republican chances of holding the House and regaining the Senate while diminishing their prospects for statehouse races as well.
Given the likelihood that Trump will decline to put the nation’s interests and the Republican Party’s ahead of his own perceived self-interest, preparations should be made for a national write-in campaign if one Republican, and only one, is willing to file the necessary paperwork in the thirty-one states that require it for such votes to be counted and reported. Nine others don’t impose that filing requirement for write-in votes to count, and ten states do not allow write-ins at all.
Trump supporters and some loyal Republicans will argue that a write-in campaign is doomed and will only siphon off votes from Trump. But a “suicidal” Trump campaign is already doomed, and a write-in option will maintain voter interest and help GOP candidates down-ballot. Even if a write-in candidate does not win the 270 votes needed for the election, he or she could help prevent Trump or Harris from prevailing and enable the House of Representatives to choose the president. Given a Trump-Harris choice, Republicans and Independents might well consider a write-in option: What have you got to lose?
Joseph Bosco served as China Country Desk Officer in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, a nonresident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States. He is presently a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute and a fellow of the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS).
Image: Sir. David / Shutterstock.com.
