Betting on the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award hasn’t always been as straightforward as it’s been the last few years. It’s true the preseason favorite has won three times since 2020, including Will Anderson last season. But before that, you have to go back to Luke Kuechly in 2012 for the last time a preseason favorite made good on those odds, per SportsOddsHistory data.
While that doesn’t preclude Dallas Turner, the +400 favorite at BetMGM, from taking home the award, it does inform bettors about how much of a lock he’s not. Especially in a year where no defensive player made a convincing enough case to be selected before the 15th pick of the draft. This competition is very much wide open.
In fact, the Minnesota Vikings rookie wasn’t always the favorite. Laiatu Latu actually opened as the +700 favorite before Turner’s odds dropped from +750 to +400 — likely due to betting action on Turner — and Latu moved to a more modest +500.
Despite that, Latu remains a strong candidate to win the award based on some of the praise coming out of Indianapolis Colts training camp.
According to the Indy Star, Latu led a pass rush that dominated the Colts’ first joint practice with the Arizona Cardinals last week. Kwity Paye, one of Indy’s sack leaders last season, compared the fluidity of Latu’s movement to water. Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner took it a step further, comparing the vibes he gets from Latu to his former 49ers teammate and 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa.
Oh, and by the way, Bosa is a former rookie of the year himself.
2x All Pro DT @DeForestBuckner says the "vibes" are very similar between #Colts rookie DE Laiatu Latu and Nick Bosa his rookie year
"Laiatu has all the characteristics and all potential in his game… he definitely has what it takes."@laiatu_latu @heykayadams @Colts pic.twitter.com/6mMwGYayow
— Up & Adams (@UpAndAdamsShow) August 15, 2024
Now, not to get too carried away, this is for sure the time of year some rookies will impress more than they ever will. Turner, himself, has received high praise from camp too. As has players like Los Angeles Rams edge rusher Jared Verse (+1100) and Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (+1100).
But for Latu to open as the DROY favorite, become the first defensive player drafted, generate the type of buzz he has and still end up with the second-best odds because the public has hammered Turner (16.1% tickets, 22.5% handle), he’s the player I’m eyeing to have an early impact and give bettors the best bang for their buck.
