What have we got to lose?
The Guardians will face four right-handed pitchers in a crucial four-game series against the Twins beginning tomorrow, so it’s time to see what left-handed outfielder George Valera can do.
Covering the Corner’s Zach has relevant George Valera stats for us here:
George Valera is slashing .296/.360/.525 with an .885 OPS and a 20.6% K rate against RHP this season. His IZ-Contact% is over 80% on the season, he has an elite chase rate, he’s out of minor league options, it’s time to get him up here and see if he can hit RHP at the MLB level.
— Zach (@PhenoMVP) August 7, 2024
I made the argument on this site, yesterday, that Kyle Manzardo deserves a chance to show if he can help the ball-club in Minnesota. I still believe that to be true, and I would swap either Jhonkensy Noel or Daniel Schneemann for Manzardo tomorrow and feel great about giving the young first-baseman/DH a second-chance to impact the Guardians’ push for the playoffs. However, with the presence of Lane Thomas and David Fry on the team, I think the team still needs another left-handed outfield bat, one to take the place of the afore-mentioned Schneemann, or Tyler Freeman or Angel Martinez. More on which of those players I’d choose to replace in a second - let’s talk about who we’re calling up - George Valera.
Now, Valera only has a 99 wRC+, overall, at Columbus but aside from the excellent splits he has for the season against RHP (.885 OPS for the season), he also has a 119 wRC+ since July 1st, perhaps shaking off a slow start as he recovered from multiple hand injuries. Notably, as Zach referenced, Valera’s in-zone contact rate has risen from a dismal 78.8% to a much more playable 83.3% this season, accompanied by a slight lowering of his swinging strike rate to 11%. His 11.5% walk rate should play well in the majors, and his walk rates have been steadily in the 11-15% rate throughout his minor league career.
Now, it’s not all perfect, of course, or Valera would be on the roster already. His 46.2% groundball rate is not ideal. However, a 47.4% pull rate accompanied by a 32% fly-ball rate should give the team the potential for a handful of patented pulled-fly-ball homers from Valera, perhaps over into the 328 foot right-field corner at Target Field. He certainly has the ability to put a ball in the seats:
Right field has been a blackhole for Cleveland, and I think it's time they give George Valera a chance. He has one of my favorite swings in BASEBALL, and on top of his power, he's walking 15% of the time in AAA pic.twitter.com/2j6Xoo6sEI
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) June 14, 2024
An additional consideration is Valera’s defense, which can at times seem lackadaisical in right field. This is where I think Valera’s presence makes Lane Thomas more of a significant weapon off the bench, however, with Thomas available to sub-in against a left-handed reliever and then providing his excellent arm in right-field for late in the game.
The Guardians have given looks to Johnathan Rodriguez and Jhonkensy Noel this season with mixed success. I argue it’s time to do the same to the next outfielder on their 40-man who is in his final option year. It’s also time for the Guardians to recognize that Lane Thomas is a helpful player but very likely not an everyday player with 1,357 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in his major league career and only an 87 wRC+. Thomas is a valuable player but his value is best leverage when he bats against left-handed pitching, uses his arm in right-field, and speed on the base paths. Adding a Valera to the roster enables the Guardians to do just that.
The Guardians should exchange Valera for Daniel Schneemann. The Schneemann story is a great one and he’s a valuable bench piece but they need to try for more than his .302 xwOBa, -1.5 baserunning runs above average and mediocre defense around the diamond. The Scheexperiment was a good idea, but now it’s time for a Re-eValeruation. I would also exchange Manzardo for Jhonkensy Noel for the coming series and give the next couple weeks while Noel would be in Columbus as a trial period to see if either Manzardo or Valera are providing more than Jhonk can with his chase issues. However, I’m also perfectly fine if the team wants to use Angel Martinez as more of an outfield-infield swing player, allowing them to demote either Brayan Rocchio or (far more likely and sensible) Tyler Freeman.
My suggestion is that the typical Guardians’ lineup against a RHP should be:
1. Kwan - LF
2. Martinez - CF
3. Ramirez - 3B
4. Josh Naylor - 1B/DH
5. Valera - RF
6. Manzardo - 1B/DH
7. Gimenez - 2B
8. Bo Naylor - C
9. Rocchio - SS
Bench:
Freeman - IF/OF
Hedges - C
Thomas - OF
Fry - 1B/OF/DH
The typical Guardians’ lineup against a LHP should be:
1. Kwan - LF
2. Thomas - RF
3. Ramirez - 3B
4. Fry - DH
5. Josh Naylor - 1B
6. Gimenez - 2B
7. Freeman - SS
8. Martinez - CF
9. Bo or Hedges - C
Bench:
Rocchio - IF
Valera - OF
Manzardo - 1B/DH
If you keep Noel, he DH’s here, Fry catches, Rocchio plays short, and Freeman is in Columbus, which would also be more than adequate as a plan.
If the Guardians don’t believe either Valera or Manzardo is ready, then they need more from Schneemann and they need to promote Brennan, again, for the weekend series. The left-handed hitting on the roster is just not adequate, currently, for the series ahead against the Twins. The time is now to be aggressive and creative with the weapons you have on the roster so that the cushion you have built up in the division and playoff races does not erode any further.
