Transgender Americans are more enthusiastic about November’s presidential election now that President Biden, who last month announced he will not seek a second term, is no longer the expected Democratic nominee.
Enthusiasm about the election soared among transgender adults after Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Vice President Harris, according to a survey published Thursday by FOLX Health, a digital LGBTQ health care service.
Thirty-two percent of the more than 1,200 trans adults surveyed by the group in mid-July said Biden’s announcement made them more enthusiastic about November’s election, compared with just 8 percent who said they felt enthusiastic during his candidacy. More than half of respondents — 53 percent — said they were hopeful about the election following Biden’s decision to drop out, compared with 14 percent who said they were optimistic about the election’s outcome while he was still running.
That uptick partially reflects optimism that Harris, who has now secured the Democratic presidential nomination, will better protect and advance transgender rights, though that’s not the only explanation, said Haley Everett, vice president of marketing for FOLX.
She said it also reflects that those polled think Harris has a better chance of defeating former President Trump than Biden.
“The deep fear is primarily about Trump winning, and there’s a sentiment that it's more likely that Trump will not win post-Biden dropping out and Harris taking over,” she said. “That’s what looms largest in people's minds, I would say, more than sort of Biden's personal record or Harris's personal record, although people do overall see her as supporting LGBTQ policies more [than Biden].”
Biden, who frequently touts his administration as the most pro-LGBTQ in history, expanded federal nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ Americans and condemned attacks against the transgender community while in office. In 2022, he signed legislation safeguarding marriage equality.
The president has, however, faced some criticism from the transgender community for not doing enough to protect access to gender-affirming health care, and the White House in a controversial statement last month said it does not support transition surgeries for minors, angering some of its LGBTQ allies. The White House later clarified that while it believes surgical procedures should be reserved for adults, it does not support laws or policies that ban them.
Harris, a longtime LGBTQ rights advocate, has also faced some backlash for her past actions regarding transgender rights. As California attorney general in 2015, Harris worked to block a transgender woman in a state prison from receiving gender-affirming surgery, though she later apologized for her role in that case.
Eighty-three percent of respondents in Thursday's survey said Trump, the Republican nominee for president, does not address the community’s concerns “at all,” and 89 percent said they are “extremely concerned” about a second Trump term.
“I am fearful for another Trump presidency. I feel my life and the lives of others are at stake,” said one respondent from California. “I wonder daily if I need to flee or hide.”
Trump has promised to enact at least a dozen policies targeting members of the LGBTQ community if he is reelected in November, including nationwide bans on gender-affirming health care for minors and transgender student-athletes. His running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), sponsored bills in Congress to make providing gender-affirming medical care to trans minors a felony, punishable by more than a decade in prison, and ban the use of “X” gender markers on U.S. passports.
A majority of respondents in Thursday’s survey — 92 percent — said they are anxious about the upcoming election, unchanged from when Biden was still in the running. Interest in the race nearly doubled, however, following Biden’s exit.
“The stakes feel really high,” Everett said. “The sense that, very swiftly, things could go from challenging to impossible and downright scary is really there for us in our community.”
Survey respondents overwhelmingly said they believe the outcome of this year’s presidential election will have a significant impact on LGBTQ Americans’ access to health care; 43 percent of transgender voters aged 18-34 said LGBTQ issues, including access to gender-affirming care, is their top voting issue. Sixty-three percent of trans adults older than 35 said the same.
Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they have taken, or are planning to take, at least one action to protect their access to gender-affirming medical care — including expediting or delaying doctors' appointments and stockpiling medications — because of concerns about the election and future policy changes that could restrict care.
While gender-affirming health care for transgender minors is not banned at the federal level, half of states since 2021 have enacted laws that ban treatment for people younger than 18. Measures adopted in states including Florida and Missouri also limit access to care for some trans adults. The Supreme Court will determine during its next term whether bans on gender-affirming health care, which is endorsed by major medical organizations, are constitutional.
