Tester locked in tight race in Montana; Trump holds wide lead over Harris: Poll

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is locked in a tight race in Montana as former President Trump boasts a wide lead over Vice President Harris in the state, new polling shows.

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey puts Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy two points ahead of Tester, 48 percent to 46 percent. Another 5 percent are undecided. 

Tester is one of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle, a rare Democrat holding office in a state Biden lost back in 2020, and his race could determine which party ends up controlling the upper chamber.

The poll also marks a shift from March, when Tester boasted a two-point lead over his Republican challenger. 

Because the split falls within the survey's 3-point margin of error, the race remains a statistical tie for the two Senate race rivals. 

“The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefited with a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support has only increased by two points” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. 

This week, Tester launched a "Republicans for Tester" group to rally support from across the aisle as he braces for a competitive November contest. 

At the top of the ticket, Trump is a whopping 15 percent ahead of Harris, but the vice president's 40-percent support is a notable 5-point improvement from the 35 percent President Biden garnered back in March. 

Trump held the support of 55 percent of Montana voters, with another 5 percent were undecided. 

“Harris has picked up ground among women voters — 47% support Harris compared to 40% who supported Biden, while Trump maintains around 61% support among male voters. Voters with college degrees have also flipped; in March, they broke for Trump by seven points, now breaking for Harris by seven,” Kimball said.

When undecided voters are asked who they lean toward, Trump jumps to 58 percent, and Harris ticks up slightly, to 43 percent. 

Third-party candidates, though, are a drag on the Democratic nominee. With them added into the mix, Trump brings in 54 percent, while Harris’s support drops to 39 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. brings in 5 percent, and another 3 percent are undecided. 

The survey was conducted Aug. 5-6 among 1,000 likely voters in Montana, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.