Is it playoffs or bust?
At the beginning of the season, very few people thought that the Royals would be particularly relevant. To be sure, many thought that the Royals would be better—probably a lot better—than they were last year. But “better” and “good,” of course, are not exactly the same.
On March 15, which seems like forever ago, I wrote an article about how many wins it would take to make the playoffs just in case it was relevant (and to dream a little). Essentially, the average first Wild Card winner over the last decade ended up with 94 or so wins, with the second Wild Card at about 90 wins and the brand new third Wild Card spot at about 87 wins. We’re pacing a little hot this year with the third Wild Card on track for a tick under 89 wins, but we’re also only in our third year with that additional playoff spot so maybe that’ll be the new norm.
In the middle of the article, I talked about what “winning” meant, as Bobby Witt Jr. had said that he wanted to get back to “winning” baseball, prompting me to write it in the first place:
Improving for the Royals will be easy, but improving enough to “win?” Can they do that? On some level, if depends on what you mean by a “winning team.” Technically, a winning team is a team that has more wins than losses, which would mean an 82-win squad or better with MLB schedules as currently constructed.
Does “winning” mean competing for a playoff spot for most of the year? Maybe. Most likely, that’s what the Royals are thinking about. It is going to be hard for a 56-win team to win the 25 or so additional games it takes to have a great shot at making the playoffs. But a team can be competitive and even occasionally nab the division lead throughout the season and still fall short at the end—think the 2003 Royals, for instance.
At the time, it was fun to think about the “what ifs” of how good the Royals could be. Fortunately, we are the proverbial dog that has caught the proverbial car. Remember that team that’s on pace for just under 89 wins in the third Wild Card spot? That team is your 2024 Kansas City Royals, baby. And it’s not just May or something—it’s August! Like, a full week into August. The Royals are legitimately a good team.
Lately, though, there has been a little bit of consternation and hand-wringing among Royals fans as the team has gone through some streakiness and therefore caused some whiplash. The Royals have lost some key games and have looked very poor against good teams—since the All-Star break, they’ve only won three of 11 games against teams not named the Chicago White Sox or Detroit Tigers and have dropped six of their last seven games at Kauffman Stadium.
So there’s a legitimate question here that is quite timely: what are are expectations of the Royals now?
I’m not talking hopes here—I’m talking expectations. For instance, I hope the Chiefs win the Super Bowl every year. I expect them to make it to the Divisional round of the playoffs and anything less would be disappointing. At the beginning of the year, nobody expected the Royals to even have a winning record. That seems very likely to happen. But if the Royals won, say, 85 games and missed the playoffs, would we be happy or unhappy?
There’s no right answer here. I think it’s a reasonable argument to say that the Royals are already so much better than anybody thought they’d be that the team has already wildly exceeded expectations. That’s healthy. But it’s also reasonable to say that when the Royals’ playoff odds are north of 50% in August, the expectation should be that the team makes the playoffs and that not making the playoffs would be disappointing.
A little over a week ago, I also wrote that the 2024 Royals were giving off 2003 Royals vibes. It was a good luck charm of sorts and the team surged, but they aren’t that far off that 2003 pace with a wicked schedule coming up—a loss to the Red Sox would put this year’s team only two wins ahead of the 2003 team’s pace, and a 23-game stretch against teams who currently have a .500 or better record looms starting on August 23.
The question, though, is...is that a bad thing? Does it matter now if, like that 2003 team, the Royals faded into winning somewhere between 83 and 85 games? That’s still a huge improvement over last year. Additionally: would you rather have something like the 2013 Royals happen? Is it worse to win 86 games and lose out on a playoff spot at the last minute, or would you rather claw back from an early slump and just barely miss the playoffs? Because you sit home either way.
I have no answers here for you. For me, though, I think the answer is that I think it would be disappointing to hold a playoff spot all year, like the Royals have done, only to not quite hold on. At the same time, I prefer something like this to the 2013 Royals, who got in a hole they never fully climbed out of. This season has been fun, and I want to watch the fun continue. Let’s hope they do.
