Here’s what we know so far.
It’s been almost six months since the first rumors emerged about Brandon Aiyuk’s status with the 49ers, and somehow it’s still going on. Contract talks slowed, then froze all together with the All-Pro receiver, and the writing was on the wall in April when San Francisco drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round — a possible future replacement for Aiyuk.
Simmering trade rumors lingered for most of the summer, but it felt as if the 49ers were going to play Aiyuk in 2024, see if they could win, and resign themselves to losing him in free agency next year. Training camp dashed those hopes when Aiyuk began a holdout, and the heat was turned up to make everything boil over. Now we have a scenario where four teams have thrown their hat in the ring, but only two really have a chance, all while Niners star Christian McCaffrey is now referring to Aiyuk as his “former teammate.”
Christian McCaffrey refers to Brandon Aiyuk as a “former teammate”
— Kevin Krueger (@kevinkruegs) August 6, 2024
h/t @StatsOnFire #49ers pic.twitter.com/RUtiFjt6aU
At this point we know there are four teams playing cat and mouse with the 49ers over Aiyuk — all of whom are vacillating between obviously wanting the receiver, while also ensuring they don’t upset their current roster. The Steelers, Browns, Patriots and Commanders seem are all in, and that seems to be the order of possibility in terms of a landing spot. The question becomes what they could offer, and whether Aiyuk wants to go.
This feels like the inevitable home for Brandon Aiyuk when the dust settles. This is his preferred destination, and the team he seems most willing to sign a contract extension with — which is a critical element of a potential trade.
On the surface it feels like a bit of an odd fit. The Steelers are a brilliant defensive team, but the offense has been shaky and it’s unclear what their long-term plan at quarterback will be. The team has Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. They’re in great shape compared to a lot of NFL teams, but Wilson and Fields are dramatically different passers who don’t really mesh together in a cohesive offense.
The wild card factor is Mike Tomlin. One of the most loved and respected coaches in the NFL, Tomlin has always had a clear cut No. 1 “alpha” receiver who becomes a star. As it stands that’s George Pickens, but Aiyuk and Pickens could arguably be the best receiver tandem in the league, with Aiyuk filling the role of that top guy.
What makes this difficult is that the Steelers don’t seem to have trade assets the 49ers are interested in. San Francisco seemingly wants a receiver who can help them win right now and draft assets for the future. Outside of Pickens (who isn’t moving), the receiver talent drops off a cliff for the Steelers and becomes players the 49ers wouldn’t want.
It’s a buyer’s market on Aiyuk right now, and everyone knows it. That could force the 49ers’ hand into accepting less than they want just so they can move on.
Chance Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Steelers: 40%
This would likely be the best scenario for both teams in terms of a raw trade. Rumored framework of a deal would send Amari Cooper and draft picks to the 49ers in exchange for Aiyuk.
Essentially it puts San Francisco back on even ground. Like Aiyuk, Cooper is entering the final year of his contract — meaning the 49ers get a weapon right now to lessen the impact of losing their All Pro, plus a critical year to get Pearsall up to speed along with future draft picks to boot. It seems like a win-win, and gives Cleveland a receiver upgrade who could gel better with Deshaun Watson in the offense this year.
The sticking point seems to be whether the Browns are willing to make a deal that includes draft assets if Aiyuk is not willing to sign a long-term extension there. A straight-up trade for Cooper isn’t what the Niners want, and if that’s the best offer they get from Cleveland then it’s more likely they simply pull Aiyuk off the block, play hardball, and see if he will play for them.
Chance Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Browns: 20%
The wild card in all this is New England. If the Steelers are the team Aiyuk wants, but the Niners don’t, then the Patriots are the exact opposite. Still a rebuilding team, draft assets from the Patriots would be very intriguing to San Francisco, who could likely land a Top 10 pick in the 2nd round (presumably) plus something more for Aiyuk.
Receiver Kendrick Bourne has often been mentioned as the established player in this deal. He’s nowhere near as good as Aiyuk or Cooper — but he’s a decent player who fits the 49ers offense quite well.
The biggest issue is that Aiyuk doesn’t want to go to the Patriots. There are reports he wouldn’t sign a long-term contract to be there through a rebuild, and there’s little question it would be a major competitive step back.
At this point New England is trying to save face by saying they’re “happy” with their current players, which is essentially code for “Aiyuk doesn’t want us, and we don’t want to look bad to free agents next year.” Right now this seems dead in the water — but there’s still an outside chance.
Chance Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Patriots: 5%
Why were the Commanders mentioned in this at all? Probably because the Commanders enjoy being mentioned in any big NFL news. This was entirely fueled by Jayden Daniels and Aiyuk having a relationship from their time at Arizona State, and little more.
It’s unclear what assets the Commanders would have offered. It’s unclear whether Aiyuk would want to go there. This never really made much sense, and now they’re apparently “out” on a potential trade it’s unclear whether they were ever “in.”
Still, let’s throw them a sliver of a bone because the NFL is a weird place and anything can happen.
Chance Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Commanders: 1%
One of the most likely scenarios in all this is that nothing happens at all. The thing about the 49ers is that they are perfectly happy to just let everything play out, get a compensatory pick, and keep everything moving forward.
Obviously the Niners are a dramatically weaker team without Aiyuk. However, Aiyuk is also dramatically weaker entering free agency if he refuses to play. At the end of the day these two might need each other more than they realize right now, and cooler heads could prevail as we approach the start of the regular season.
It feels unlikely that a long-term contract will come to pass, but playing out this year and parting ways still feels like a major possibility.
Chance Brandon Aiyuk stays with the 49ers: 34%
