Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Air Force's B-21 Raider program faces rising costs, with Northrop Grumman renegotiating higher prices for the next batch of 19 aircraft.
-Initially agreed to take a loss on early lots, Northrop has now secured a higher cost ceiling, raising concerns about the affordability of the B-21.
-The bomber's price tag could reach $600 million per aircraft, potentially limiting the total number the Air Force can procure. This development could challenge plans to replace aging bombers and maintain the Air Force's strategic capabilities.
Everything is costing more, and it isn't just groceries, and the burritos at Chipotle. The United States Air Force is going to have to shell out a few more bucks to pay for its fleet of B-21 Raider long-range strategic bombers to Northrop Grumman, the prime contractor of the next-generation aircraft.
The aerospace firm had previously agreed to take a "loss" on the first lots of the B-21, following negotiations with the contractor early this year, but as Defense One first reported on Monday, Northrop Grumman has been able to subsequently re-negotiate "a higher cost ceiling" for the next batch of 19 aircraft.
"B-21 remains on track to meet its key performance parameter for Average Procurement Unit Cost (APUC) of $550 million in Base Year 2010 dollars," Northrop Grumman stated in a June 18 press release, which highlighted key factoids about the future backbone of the U.S. Air Force's bomber fleet.
"The government has fixed price production options for the first 21 aircraft. Final terms, quantity, and pricing beyond the first 21 aircraft are subject to negotiation. The government and Northrop Grumman have established not to exceed pricing for an additional 19 aircraft. The average not to exceed value for the subsequent lots is above the average unit price of the five LRIP lots," the aerospace firm added.
The B-21 Raider, which is set to replace the aging B-1B Lancer and B-2 Spirit in the coming decade, has been touted as being the most advanced bomber aircraft ever built. It is also on track to be the most expensive, potentially exceeding the B-2 if enough Raiders aren't built.
Current estimates put the price tag for the bomber as high as $600 million per aircraft, but only if the Air Force can buy the aircraft in volume to spread out the R&D costs. Yet, due to the rising costs, there had been concerns that the United States Air Force would be hard-pressed to buy enough of the B-21 Raider bombers in the coming years. In other words, the air service is facing a dilemma – it needs to buy more of the bombers to lower the per unit cost, but the price could still go up anyway, reducing the number that it can reasonably afford to buy!
The Raider entered its Low-Rate Initial Production (LRIP) in January, and the first five production lots of the B-21 will total just 21 airplanes. However, that is entirely by design and was meant to ensure the costs are managed accordingly. That may not work out as planned.
The Air Force hasn't provided an updated unit cost, while the service has also scaled back how much it requested to go towards the program for fiscal year 2025 (FY25), down to $2.7 billion from $4 billion projected last year.
As previously reported, the U.S. Air Force anticipates a need for about 100 B-21 Raiders, while Northrop Grumman, which as the prime contractor has a vested interest in producing more aircraft, recommended a program of at least 200 bombers.
The total number of the B-21 Raiders will come down to what lawmakers are likely willing to fund.
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.
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