The AFC North will once again be a slugfest.
Once again, the AFC North projects to be the best division in football. A year after all four teams finished above .500 and three qualified for the playoffs, reasons exist to believe each team could be better in 2024.
However, relative to talent across each roster, optimism for the Pittsburgh Steelers is incredibly disproportionate.
At BetMGM, the Steelers are the most-bet team in the entire NFL to win their division. In a division that also includes the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, almost half (46.8%) the money on a winner is riding on the Steelers at +700, with Pittsburgh as the pick to win on more than half (51.8%) of the tickets.
That seems absurd in a division that features reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and perennial MVP candidate Joe Burrow.
One reason bettors may be flocking to Pittsburgh — besides the longer odds — is that they may not trust those other quarterbacks to stay healthy. That includes Deshaun Watson, who also can’t be trusted to be good.
It’s a fair concern. Each QB has stretches of missed time over the last few years that impacted playoff chases.
The flaw in that logic, of course, is Pittsburgh’s newly-acquired quarterback duo can’t be trusted either. Especially with unproven playmakers and a developing offensive line. If the betting choices come down to Jackson and Burrow staying healthy or Russell Wilson and Justin Fields leading a productive offense, I’ll roll with the former. At least we’ve seen one of those things recently.
In fact, Baltimore’s addition of Derrick Henry should improve Jackson’s ability to stay on the field and impact games, as the workhorse back gives defenses another legitimate threat to worry about. If Baltimore’s defense continues to play at an elite level under new coordinator Zach Orr, the Ravens are the team to beat and bet at +135.
Speaking of elite defenses, Cleveland should once again be really good on that side of the ball too. But until Watson shows himself to be productive enough to make it count — crucial in a division where all the defenses could be solid — the Browns aren’t worth betting at +500.
As for the Bengals, I’m not nearly as high on them to take a swing on odds so close to Baltimore’s at +165. If Burrow is healthy, they’ll be in the playoff picture. But the defense isn’t close to as good as their rivals, and it remains to be seen how much they’ll miss Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd on offense.
