Israel’s military displays what they say is an Iranian ballistic missile which they retrieved from the Dead Sea after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, at Julis military base, in southern Israel, April 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
There’s a storm coming to Israel, and it’s expected to be more severe than the Iranian attack last April. The mood here is one of tension, but not panic. Israelis continue to live, work, play, and basically continue normal life, but with a close eye on the news. Meanwhile, the United States may be unintentionally enabling the very bloodshot and instability it seeks to prevent.
Hezbollah (the Iranian backed terror organization that effectively controls Lebanon) recently struck a soccer field, killing 12 Druze children and injuring some 30 more. This is in the context of northern Israel becoming almost entirely uninhabitable through 10 months of constant Hezbollah bombardment.
In response to this massacre (but also in response to the past nine months of attacks) Israel killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fu’ad Shukr, via a targeted airstrike on an apartment in Beirut. Less than 24 hours later, an explosion, widely attributed to Israel, killed Hamas chief Ismael Haniyeh in an Iranian safehouse in Teheran. During that same 24-hour period, Israel finally issued confirmation that its July 13 strike on the notorious Hamas commander Mohammad Deif in Gaza, did in fact successfully kill him.
These strikes are significant: it is the first time Israel has struck such high level commanders; it is the first time Israel has struck in the heart of Beirut and Tehran; and it is the first time Israel has held Iran directly accountable for the acts of its proxies.
Immediately following these strikes, Iran announced that, together with its proxies, it would perform its “duty” of “avenging [Haniyeh’s] blood,” including what appears to be a threat to intentionally target civilians.
Shortly before these events, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to possibly invade Israel, saying “Just as we entered [Nagorno-]Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we might do the same to [Israel].” Even if mere bluster, the threat is particularly distressing, as Turkey is a member of NATO.
Israel is now preparing for possible simultaneous attacks from all sides: Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian proxies in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Gaza, and possibly even Turkey as well. The attacks are expected to occur in the coming days, and they are expected to be more severe than the attack last April, when Iran and the Houthis launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel, most of which were neutralized prior to hitting their targets.
Like last April, Israel is working with allies, including the United States, which has sent the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the region, as well as other assets, including a Marine amphibious ready group with some 4,000 troops. The Marine group is notable as it is typically an offensive force designed for combat, not merely missile interception. British commander Adm. Tony Radakin met in Tel Aviv with his Israeli counterparts in recent days, and it appears that Egypt, Jordan, and various Gulf states are also prepared to help intercept incoming missiles.
Yet there were also some concerning developments out of Washington. During a phone call last week that included Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and American Vice President Kamala Harris, President Biden accused Israel of escalating tensions — a bizarre claim given that Israel is responding to Hezbollah’s massacre of 12 children, as well as to 10 months of bombardment in the face of astonishing Israeli restraint. Biden reportedly further threatened to abandon Israel’s defense if Israel were to cause any further escalations, a terribly concerning statement to make toward a US ally in public. Ironically, this approach is more likely to increase the severity of Iran’s upcoming attack, rather than the reverse.
When asked if the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh has ruined the chances for a ceasefire deal that might return Israeli hostages, Biden said: “It hasn’t helped.” In fact, the truth may be the opposite: until now Hamas has had time on its side, as international pressure on Israel grows, the health of the hostages deteriorates, and Hamas leadership remains safe in Qatar. The recent high level assassinations have shattered that reality, for the first time placing a degree of direct pressure on Hamas and Iranian leaders that they had not experienced previously.
Israeli journalist Haviv Rettig Gur, speaking recently on Bari Weis’ “Honestly” podcast, referred to an American “obsession with stability,” noting that America has actually decreased stability by allowing its enemies to gradually escalate while tying the hands of American allies against appropriate retaliation.
Neville Chamberlain’s famous “peace in our time” policy was well-intentioned, but produced the exact opposite of peace: enabling Hitler to initiate the largest and bloodiest war in human history. Similarly, America’s “stability in our time” (my own turn of phrase) may be leading the Middle East, and perhaps the world, in a similarly unintended direction.
In any case, we expect an intense multi-front attack in the coming days. Israelis have quietly stocked up on food, water, batteries, AM/FM radios and the like. Please keep us in your thoughts and prayers, and please encourage your elected officials to provide us with the firm and unconditional support that this situation requires.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post A Storm Is Coming: Massive Attack Expected on Israel This Week first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
