Quite simply, what had been a lopsided race in the weeks after Biden’s debate has now become a tossup amid Harris’s growing strength and momentum.
Two weeks after becoming the Democratic nominee for president, Vice President Kamala Harris’s surge in enthusiasm and support has considerably narrowed the 2024 election.
Last week in these pages, we wrote that while there was limited data available, Harris was clearly an improvement over President Biden. Now, new national and state-level polling suggests that assessment might be even more prescient, and points to an election that will be much closer than many had expected.
Indeed, national polling underscores just how much the race has tightened.
According to the 10 most recent public polls conducted after Biden’s withdrawal and aggregated by RealClearPolitics, Trump leads by an average of just 1 point, down from 3 points on the eve of Harris replacing Biden.
Further, Harris has an outright lead over Trump in three of those recent polls, including those conducted by Daily Kos/Civiqs (49 percent to 45 percent), Reuters (43 percent to 42 percent), and Morning Consult (47 percent to 46 percent).
Quite simply, what had been a lopsided race in the weeks after Biden’s debate has now become a tossup amid Harris’s growing strength and momentum.
In the seven swing states that will likely determine the election, Harris has virtually erased Trump’s lead, according to a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
Across all seven states, Harris’s 48 percent to 47 percent lead, while statistically, a tie, is a 3-point improvement from Biden, who trailed Trump by two points (47 percent to 45 percent) before he withdrew late last month.
Within individual states, Harris’s numbers — and her outperformance of Biden — are even more impressive. In both Arizona and Nevada, states where Trump had led Biden, Harris now leads by 2 points. And in Michigan, Harris’s 11-point lead (53 percent to 42 percent) is more than double Biden’s previous lead.
To be sure, while topline numbers suggest that this is anyone’s race, the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll suggests that Harris’s support may be due to genuine enthusiasm for — and acceptance of — her candidacy that was clearly absent when Biden was atop the ticket.
More than 4 in 10 (44 percent) voters say they are “much more” or “somewhat more” likely to vote now that Harris is the nominee, including nearly two-thirds of Black voters (64 percent), as well as strong majorities of Gen Z (61 percent) and Hispanic voters (56 percent).
Critically, those constituencies are core parts of the Democratic base, and after months of eroding enthusiasm for Biden, those groups all appear to be coming back into the fold to support Harris.
Across all seven swing states in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Harris leads Trump with Black voters (75 percent to 19 percent), voters under 35 years old (52 percent to 42 percent), Hispanic voters (56 percent to 38 percent) and suburban women (52 percent to 42 percent).
To that end, Harris is also seeing a rise in her personal metrics. According to a separate Morning Consult poll, one-half (50 percent) of voters now have a positive view of Harris, a 7-point improvement from two weeks ago, before her campaign had begun in earnest.
And the share of Americans having an unfavorable view of the vice president has dropped in tandem, from 51 percent two weeks ago to 46 percent now. As Morning Consult notes, “Harris’s 4-point net favorability is a higher rating than Biden or Trump have posted all cycle.”
Taken together, Harris’s broadening support, particularly with Black and Hispanic voters, along with growing acceptance of her candidacy by the party’s base, has allowed her campaign to broaden its strategy and hope to expand the electoral map.
Speaking to the New York Times, campaign aides recently said they plan to compete in “racially diverse and Southern states” such as Georgia, where the Bloomberg/Morning Consult shows a dead heat at 47 percent each.
However, it is critical to note that polls are a snapshot in time, and there are nearly 100 days — an eternity in politics — before Americans cast their votes.
Moreover, Harris is undoubtedly benefitting from a honeymoon period, as well as her opponent’s tendency to launch personal attacks on Harris’s race and gender as opposed to attacking her on the issues, forcing her to defend the Biden administration’s record.
Put another way, Trump’s personal attacks on Harris have let her off the hook, allowing her to avoid having to voice her own agenda and policy platform on issues like the economy, immigration, combatting crime, and foreign policy.
The more attention voters pay to remarks questioning whether or not the Vice President is Black leaves less time for debating Harris’s lack of experience, controversial remarks over policing and criminal justice and a Harris agenda that may be too far to the political left for most voters.
Ultimately, whether or not Harris’s momentum thus far will be sustainable is an open question. And yet the polls to this point make clear that Democrats are in a much better position than they were just one month ago and suggest that far from being a blowout, the presidential race should be incredibly close.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
