Tropical Storm Debby will rip into Florida’s Big Bend as a hurricane on Monday as it continues to increase in strength crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico, forcing residents in the area to evacuate and potentially causing $1 billion in damages and losses across the South.
Top winds may reach 90 miles per hour, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale when it makes landfall somewhere along coast south of Tallahassee, the US National Hurricane Center said.
“This is a life-threatening situation,” John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his forecast. “Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.”
President Joe Biden declared an emergency in Florida and ordered federal resources to help the state, the White House said. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared an emergency in 61 of the state’s 67 counties, and activated the National Guard and other resources. Dixie County ordered coastal residents to flee starting at 2 p.m. Sunday, and adjacent Taylor County has opened shelters.
Florida coastal areas may see upwards of $250 million in damages and losses. If the storm causes widespread flooding across the South, particularly around Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina, the tally may rise as high as $1 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research.
As of 11 a.m. Debby was about 130 miles west-southwest of Tampa with top winds of about 65 mph, up from 60 mph earlier. The danger for the coast has increased because there’s a chance the storm will rapidly intensify, with winds possibly jumping by about 35 mph in 24 hours, said Ryan Truchelut, president of commercial forecaster Weather Tiger LCC.
Debby’s forward progress has slowed, meaning it will have more time to build in strength as it stays over warm Gulf waters for longer, said Matt Rinde, a meteorologist with commercial-forecaster AccuWeather Inc. There’s also a chance it will become better organized, which would give it another boost in strength.
Debby will likely cause flooding from heavy rains and a storm surge that could reach up to 10 feet (3 meters) in some areas as it pushes water on shore.
In addition, there will likely be widespread power outages across parts of Florida, but the storm itself will be too far east to offshore oil and natural gas operations in the western Gulf of Mexico, sparing energy markets any great shock. Debby is 2024’s fourth storm and will be the second hurricane to hit the US this year.
Western Florida in recent years has been battered by storms including Category 5 Michael in 2018 – which killed at least 16 people in the US – and Ian, which struck as a Category 4 storm in 2022, leaving more than 160 dead. A year ago, Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the Big Bend area as a Category 3 hurricane.
Warm ocean water across the Caribbean and Gulf has raised the alarm this will be a very active Atlantic storm season. In typical years the fourth tropical system usually doesn’t arrive until mid-August.
After it crosses Florida Debby may re-emerge off the coast of South Carolina, where its onshore winds will push water into the coastline and prevent local rivers from draining flooding rains from the interior, Rinde said. If the storm stalls out in that way it could raise the risk of flooding throughout the region, including in northern Florida, Georgia and North Carolina as well.
