Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump in the race for the presidency for the first time in the calculations of one of the nation’s most popular poll watchers.
According to a model published by Nate Silver’s substack on Sunday, Harris has now taken a slight lead against Trump for the presidential election in November—though the election remains a “toss-up” by Silver’s own estimations.
Silver’s model, which compiles the results of statewide polls and weights them based on reliability, showed Trump polling ahead of the Democratic candidate for most of July—including during the weeks immediately after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Harris began to lead the former president on July 31, according to the data published on Sunday.
