For months, Trump thought Georgia would be an easy win for him in November. Then came Vice President Harris, who has upended his plans.
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Last week, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump held rallies at the same Georgia State University venue in downtown Atlanta just days apart.
Harris's event on Tuesday burst at the seams with jubilant Democrats thrilled over her new role as the face of the party and its presumptive 2024 presidential nominee.
Meanwhile, Trump's Saturday rally, which attracted the MAGA faithful, tried to blunt Harris' ascension in a race that the former president less than a month ago thought would be against the more politically-vulnerable President Joe Biden.
The new landscape comes at a critical time for both campaigns in Georgia, the onetime Republican presidential stronghold that has since taken on a shade of purple after backing Biden in 2020 and electing Democrats to the Senate in both 2021 and 2022.
Whereas many Republicans were beginning to see Georgia for the taking due to Biden's sagging numbers, Harris has given Democrats a jolt of energy in the state. And now, neither side can take this Southern battleground for granted.
Biden in 2020 swept nearly every swing state, boosted by his electoral advantage with young voters and minorities.
In Georgia, Biden's strong support among these groups, especially with Black voters, helped him win the state by less than one percentage point that year.
But more recently, Biden struggled to rally that base. He was often mired in the low-to-mid 40s in most Georgia polls.
A big part of that slippage was because Trump was winning over an atypical number of Black voters for a GOP presidential candidate, and a chunk of young voters were opting instead for third-party candidates like independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But Harris has reversed that trend, giving her momentum that had eluded Biden in Georgia this year.
A recent Emerson College/The Hill survey showed Trump with a narrow two-point lead (48% to 46%) over Harris in the Peach State. And the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll taken in Georgia showed Harris and Trump tied at 47% support each among registered voters.
Trump's allies had long prepared for a rematch with Biden, using a playbook centered on sweeping GOP voters and winning over independents and undecided voters on the economy.
It could have been particularly effective in Atlanta's suburbs, especially in outer suburban communities where Republicans still dominate in non-federal statewide races.
But Harris' ascent has thrown those plans into disarray.
Even though Harris is a key part of the Biden administration, she has a chance to reintroduce herself to an electorate that didn't want a 2020 rematch. Her focus on issues like upholding the Constitution and protecting reproductive rights puts her squarely where a lot of suburban residents are ideologically.
Trump weighed down suburban Republicans across the country in 2016, and in 2018 and 2020 his brand of Republicanism continued to push many suburbs — including those in the Atlanta area — further from their old GOP leanings.
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Trump underperformed in many inner suburban Atlanta communities during the March GOP presidential primary, with former UN ambassador Nikki Haley earning thousands of votes even after she had left the race.
A sizable number of these anti-Trump GOP voters could eventually migrate to Harris and give her added support in a region where she'll also need to perform strongly with Democrats to overcome Trump's rural strength.
Elections are about the future. And if Trump holds on to 2020 instead of uniting Georgia Republicans, Harris will likely benefit.
During Trump's rally on Saturday, he once again lashed out at Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, leaning into the bitterness of the 2020 election that tore apart the GOP.
Trump has long argued, without evidence, that he was the true victor in Georgia that year. But neither Kemp nor Raffensperger would aid Trump in overturning the state's presidential results, and most Republicans have sought to move beyond the ex-president's grievances on the issue.
But not Trump.
"He's a bad guy, he's a disloyal guy, and he's a very average governor," Trump told rally attendees of Kemp on Saturday.
"In my opinion, they want us to lose," the former president said of Kemp and Raffensperger.
After Trump in a Truth Social post mentioned Kemp's wife, Marty, by saying he didn't want the Georgia first lady's endorsement, the governor told the ex-president on X to "leave my family out of it."
In 2022, Trump tried to dispatch Kemp and Raffensperger in GOP primaries to no avail, as they defeated MAGA-aligned challengers.
This year, a divided Republican Party headed into November would seriously imperil the party's chances at flipping the state as the Harris campaign pours time and resources into Georgia.
If Trump can't even appear in Georgia alongside the state's popular sitting GOP governor, it could affect organizing and turnout — as Kemp's get-out-the-vote operation was critical in his reelection victory against Democrat Stacey Abrams in 2022.
