October is quickly approaching! Time to buckle up for an exciting last couple months
The trade deadline has passed. The Guardians made moves. They have the best record in the league as of right now, and there are just over 50 games left on the season. In the words of the great Anakin Skywalker, “This is where the fun begins.”
The Guardians did a bit of work before the clock struck 6 p.m., Tuesday. Though they weren’t the loudest buyers in the league, they made trades that have really added a good amount of length to the squad for this upcoming home stretch of the season. Antonetti and co. for sure had trouble dealing in what was one of the biggest seller’s markets in recent memory as well as choosing from such a limited catalog of hitters and pitchers, but they ended up being able to land RHH Lane Thomas and righty vet Alex Cobb. Those two will likely fill a very big need for the team that is trying to execute on their stellar season so far.
At the time I am writing this (August 3), the Guardians stand at 67-42, and like I said this is the best record in the league. The team’s historic start to the season really gave this squad a big head start on the late-season division race. Cleveland is currently working out of their big July slump, where before the Phillies series they were shutout five times in 14 games. They might’ve been shutout once more during the Phillies series last weekend, but they still made a big statement by taking that series against what I believe is the best team in baseball. Then they went on to sweep the Tigers in their two-game set against them to start the week and they now stand where they are at the present.
So yes, the Guardians are breaking out of their slump and they now have some real help with the deadline moves that were made. With a 67-42 record, there are exactly 53 games to go. To put our performance this year into perspective, last year the team was 53-55 with 54 games to go. That same team went 23-31 to finish the season. So, if we were to even finish .500 we’d have to go 15-39, meaning we’d have to put up a far worse performance than we did last year with 54 games to go. Now, in order to make the postseason, I obviously can’t tell exactly what it would take because it always varies based on each team’s final record — but I can give an estimate based on the AL standings of the previous two years when the playoffs expanded. In 2022, the Tampa Bay Rays had an 86-76 record to claim the final Wild Card spot, while in 2023 the Toronto Blue Jays finished 89-73. This likely means we’d have to finish relative to the high-80s in wins if we wanted to take a playoff spot. So, hypothetically, if 86 wins were required to secure a playoff berth this year, we’d still have to have a worse record in the last 54 games than last year — 20-34, to be exact. Unless this team turns into the second coming of the Bad News Bears, this squad is on pace for a chance at glory in October.
But now that we got that out of the way, let’s see how our roster stacks up as of right now.
This isn’t the most impactful set of dudes in the league in terms of the lineup, but they can still stay in there against some of the best in the league. We of course have our stars in Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, who provide the firepower for the front end of the lineup. With Lane Thomas acquired, he will also hopefully fill a huge need at the 2 hole as well. From there on out, however, the talent does drop off a bit, or at least it’s more questionable whether they will hold together the back end of the lineup or not. Guys like Jhonkensy Noel, Angel Martinez and Daniel Schneemann right now are for better or worse question marks with their limited PT. Whether Kyle Manzardo will get called back up (and if he will improve on his first Major League showing) still remains a mystery, although I do believe he will get another chance up here before the season ends. David Fry still has yet to get his plate discipline back up to at least good numbers, and Brayan Rocchio is still trying to find himself in the majors. Bo Naylor has been a lot better, though. Although I think he has been doing much better than people gave him credit for in the first couple months of the season, it is still plain to see that Bo has produced much more at the plate than in previous months. Andres Gimenez is okay, but his bat is overshadowed by his superstar-caliber glove. Tyler Freeman had a good July, but I’m still being cautious about his overall long term impact.
The rotation saw a hopeful upgrade added at the deadline in the aforementioned righty Alex Cobb. Many are questioning why we would go after a guy who has been hurt all year and is 36 years old. But I would like to say this, if Cobb picks up where he left off last year we would’ve gotten arguably the third best pitcher in the trade deadline. I like some of his underlying stats such as xFIP, and his SIERA is also better than Fedde’s. However, his ERA and WHIP definitely are worse than Fedde’s, but the fact that he can pitch efficiently leads me to believe that (if those stats sustain this year) he can lower those stats even more. Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee are the most important parts of this rotation moving forward, though. I think that they are really the crux of this whole October push. In a rotation that is made up with half lottery ticket arms (Lively, Cobb, Cantillo/Boyd), we are gonna need Williams and Bibee to take the reins and shove.
There is not much that needs to be said about the bullpen, in all honesty. It experienced no changes from the trade deadline, and it has been a constant boon to this team.
I see this bullpen being the biggest factor to our possible success in October. In the postseason, having a spectacular bullpen is almost always a must, and this bullpen is just more than that. I still think about what this team would be like if the arm barn hasn’t been as good as it’s been this whole year. They have truly given this squad so much length and I really can’t wait to see how they’ll do come October.
Another thing I am excited to see is how manager Stephen Vogt handles his first postseason push. This is a very stressful situation and it is definitely super hard for a first year skipper, but I still hope to see great things from Vogter in September and October when the pressure is on.
All in all, I have really enjoyed this season so far, and we aren’t even in September yet. It’s been super fun, filled with some ups and downs (mostly ups though). This is an amazing group of young men who are making a statement across the league. A team that is only going to get better over the next couple years, we have such a bright future ahead of us. But this October is also in that future, and this is where it all starts. Nothing can depict just how stoked I am to see what is going to happen as we race towards the end of the season!
