The 2024 Red Sox have put themselves in a position to return to playoff baseball for the first time since 2021. To do so, though, they'll have to buck a nasty late-season trend.
The Red Sox essentially begin their final third of the season Friday night in Texas. Boston has 55 games remaining on the schedule, a two-month sprint that opens with a pivotal road against the defending World Series champions before a trek to Kansas City for three huge games against one of their top wild-card competitors, the Kansas City Royals.
The stretch run has been an issue for Boston over the last three years. The Red Sox since 2021 are just 37-47 in August (including the 2021 season in which they went to the American League Championship Series), while they are just 78-93 from Aug. 1 until the season's end over that stretch.
In fact, the 2023 Red Sox beat Seattle on Aug. 1 to improve their record to 57-50. They went 12 games under .500 the rest of the way to finish last in the AL East. Their record on Aug. 2 of this season: 57-50.
From a mathematical standpoint, the odds are slightly stacked against them. Here's where various projections and models have the Red Sox entering Friday night's game in Texas.
Fangraphs: 37.4%
Baseball Prospectus: 32.9%
Baseball-Reference: 35.5%
PlayoffStatus.com: 46%
Power Rankings Guru: 38.2%
That's a pretty clear consensus. Essentially, it's anywhere from a one-in-three to a two-in-five chance. However, zeroing in on those odds on one given day, especially with two months left to play, can be a bit short-sighted. Take the 2023 Red Sox, for example. As noted, they were 57-50 on Aug. 2 last season. Just by losing that night, dropping their record to 57-51, their playoff odds at Fangraphs dropped from 30% to 23.2%.
The Blue Jays battered them 13-1 on Aug. 6 to complete a three-game sweep that dropped Boston to 57-54, with their Fangraphs odds dropping to below 11%.
Betting odds offer another perspective. Here's a sampling of those from various sportsbooks.
Caesars: Yes +200 | No -250
FanDuel: Yes +175 | No -235
BetMGM: Yes +170 | No -210
The implied probability of, say, +175 is roughly 36%, so it's more or less in line with the formulaic odds.
A lot can change very quick, but the one thing that is undeniable is the Red Sox need to reverse the recent late-season pattern if they want to defy the odds and get back to the playoffs this fall.
