New Poll From Conservative Group Spells Disaster for Trump

New polling data out Thursday shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck and neck in several key swing states.

Surveys conducted by conservative market researcher Public Opinion Strategies for the Competitiveness Coalition showed Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania (48 percent to 45 percent) and Wisconsin (48–46). The two are also tied 45–45 in the battleground state of Michigan.

Meanwhile, Trump squeezed ahead of Harris in Nevada and Arizona by one percentage point and three percentage points, respectively. The survey was conducted between July 23 and 29. Pollsters spoke to 400 people in each battleground state, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percent.

Despite 57 percent of those polled saying they disapprove of the job Joe Biden has done as president, a number still said Harris would have their vote. Across the five states, Trump and Harris tied perfectly, each with 46 percent of the vote.

Voters chose inflation, border security, and threats to American democracy out of a list of options as their key issues, with abortion following close behind.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters published Tuesday showed Harris with a larger lead in Michigan, beating Trump by 11 percentage points. In Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, she held a two percentage point advantage.

Political polling is not always the best indicator of public opinion, as polls tend to eliminate nuance or only capture opinions from the most politically active people. But the new data is still significant considering how far Biden was trailing behind Trump in the final days of his campaign.