A series between the top two teams in the American League
The Orioles and Guardians meet, post-Trade deadline, for a four-game series in Cleveland between the teams with the two best records, currently, in the American League.
The Orioles are 65-44 with +93 run differential, second in MLB in team wRC+ at 118, 14th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at +1, 16th in Defensive fWAR at -15.2, 11th in starting pitcher FIP at 3.95, and seventh in reliever FIP at 3.75.
The Guardians are 65-42 with +81 run differential, 13th in MLB in team wRC+ at 101, 20th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -3.1, fourth in Defensive fWAR at 9.7, 27th in starting pitcher FIP at 4.63, and first in reliever FIP at 3.25.
Matchups:
Game One: Trevor Rogers, LHP (4.43 FIP) vs. Ben Lively, RHP (4.49 FIP), Thursday, 8/1, 6:40PM EST
Analysis: It’s an interesting post-trade deadline matchup here as newly acquired Rogers faces off vs. newly acquired Lane Thomas, certified lefty masher, for the Guardians. Hopefully, the Orioles won’t have had much time to do any fixing with Rogers and his 43.5% hard hit rate surrendered will show up. Meanwhile, Lively will continue to try to demonstrate a reliable ability to give the Guardians solid starts against a very good lineup.
Game Two: Dean Kremer, RHP (4.88 FIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (4.84 FIP), Friday, 8/2, 7:10PM EST
Analysis: Hey, Carrasco actually has a lower FIP than his opponent in this one! I wonder if this is Cookie’s last start for the Guardians for a bit, as I’d be interested in seeing him moved to the pen when Cobb and Boyd hopefully debut. In any case, it would be nice to have a light bullpen game for the series opener and try to take Carrasco out no later than the end of the fifth as he’s got an FIP of 7.88 third-time-through-the-order this season.
Game Three: Zach Eflin, RHP (3.64 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.38 FIP), Saturday, 8/3, 7:15PM EST
Analysis: This should be a good matchup. The hitters to watch on the Orioles are Gunnar Henderson at 162 wRC+ (KILLED the Guardians last series, let’s not pitch to him), Anthony Santander 137 wRC+, Jordan Westburg 129 wRC+, Ryan O’Heard 126 wRC+, Colton Cowser 121 wRC+, Kyle Stowers 119 wRC+, Adley Rutschmann 115 wRC+, and Ryan Mountcastle 114 wRC+. The hitters to watch on the Guardians are Steven Kwan 150 wRC+, Jhonkensy Noel 146 wRC+, David Fry 139 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 137 wRC+, Lane Thomas 134 wRC+ since returning from injury on May 27th, Josh Naylor 121 wRC+, and Daniel Schneemann 101 wRC+.
Game Four: Corbin Burnes, RHP (3.48 FIP) vs. TBD, Sunday, 8/4 1:10PM EST
Analysis: Looks like Matthew Boyd or Joey Cantillo will be going Sunday, as apparently mentioned on the team broadcast (shoutout Twitter user @drok for the head’s up). If it’s Boyd, it’ll be a fun first look at him in Cleveland. If it’s Cantillo... well, he won’t have to face Kyle Schwarber! Corbin Burnes is a tough matchup, regardless.
