5 former first-rounders that could wash out in Year 3
Training camp and the preseason are a time for hope around the NFL.
In addition to the new faces on their squad, teams and fans alike are also looking to see how the members of previous draft classes are maturing and developing.
The 2024 season marks Year 3 for the 2022 draft class – a year that’s critical in a lot of different ways. First and foremost, teams can’t begin to negotiate with players on their rookie contracts until after their third year in the NFL, so this is when the 2022 draft class can realistically start looking forward to contract extensions. Year three is also when we really start to know for sure who a player will be as a pro.
Development isn’t linear, and that’s why those of us who study the draft say that you can’t properly evaluate a class until after their third year. And the unfortunate reality is that even highly drafted players can – and will – bust.
We’re going to concentrate on the first round of the 2022 draft class because the stakes are highest for them. A first-round pick is expected to be a contributor right away, and a core player by this point in their career. Missing on a first-rounder can be a major setback for a franchise, and could even be what gets a coach or general manager fired if the bust is at a cornerstone position.
So which players from the 2022 class are in the most danger of being busts as they enter their third season?
We start with the seventh overall pick of the draft, considering how good the ten picks who went before and after him have played.
Expectations were high when the Giants drafted Neal to replace Nate Solder and rebuild their offensive line. Neal was regarded as one of the very best offensive linemen in that year’s draft thanks to his combination of size and athleticism – not to mention his pedigree as an Alabama lineman.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to come close to living up to his draft slot or pedigree.
While Neal absolutely has NFL caliber size and strength, his hand usage and footwork aren’t up to par. His feet can get stuck in the mud, leading to him either failing to mirror speed off the edge, over-set and be vulnerable to inside moves, or lunge and compromise his length and strength. His footwork issues are compounded by poor block construction, which can make it all too easy for technicians to discard his hands or gain access to his chest plate. Making matters even worse, Neal has only played 20 of 34 possible games since being drafted and hasn’t been consistently healthy even when active.
That trend is continuing, as a season-ending injury from last year plus a rehab setback ledo him starting camp on the PUP list and potentially losing the right tackle job to Jermaine Eluemunor.
Neal is still a massive and powerful man, and when he locks in a block, he can win the rep. He also suffered from poor guard play next to him, and his ineffective position coach was replaced.
There were some pretty serious questions regarding Williams when he was drafted in 2022. Most notably, a torn ACL just a few months before the draft, and there was no way to know how or when he would come back from the injury. There were also questions regarding his size and build, as he was a slender 179 pounds and his play strength was lacking on his college tape.
It wasn’t terribly surprising to see Williams miss the first 11 games and start slow in his rookie season. But then he was suspended for six games (later reduced to four) to start the 2023 season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy.
It was hoped that Williams would provide a spark and a true speed threat to counter the route-running brilliance of Amon-Ra St. Brown. However, Williams only managed 24 receptions on 42 targets (a poor 57.1 percent catch rate), and averaged just 8.4 yards per reception with two touchdowns. Despite starting 10 games in 2023, Williams took just 53 percent of the possible offensive snaps, as Josh Reynolds was firmly entrenched as the Lions’ WR2 beside St. Brown.
Now the stars are aligning for Williams to shake off the poor start to his career. Reynolds is now a Denver Bronco and Williams is set to be the Lions’ WR2 going into the season. He’s healthy and getting consistent work with Jared Goff and the rest of the offense. And that offense looks to be potent once again with St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Kalif Raymond, and Jahmyr Gibbs for defenses to worry about.
At the time he was drafted, Burks was compared to Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown – the player whom Burks was drafted to replace. Instead, Burks simply could not get traction in the NFL. He has just 49 receptions for 665 yards and 1 touchdown in his 22 games as a pro, and saw his production decline from his rookie season to his 2023 campaign.
While it’s certainly true that the Titans’ quarterback situation hasn’t been anything close to ideal, Burks can’t hang all of his struggles on the platoon of Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, Joshua Dobbs, and Malik Willis. GM Ran Carthon spoke at the start of Titans’ camp about how Burks has “grown up” and “bought in” following a heart-to-heart at the end of the 2023 season. That all but calls out maturity issues underlying Burks’ disappointing performance thus far in his career.
Even if the lights are on now, snaps and opportunities could be hard to come by. The Titans have renovated their offense, adding Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard to their starting lineup. That slots Burks in as WR 4 on the depth chart, and he’ll have to work hard to earn the snaps he needs to avoid being a true bust.
Trevor Penning wasn’t widely known during the 2021 season, but once people got a look at Penning they found a player with a legitimately elite athletic profile. Penning’s blend of size and athleticism is simply rare, and he also has the kind of competitive toughness that gets coaches excited. He plays with a definite nasty streak and has earned a reputation as one of the meanest linemen in the NFL.
Penning didn’t play much in his rookie year, logging a total of 124 snaps (35 percent of the possible offensive snaps). Last year, he was active for all 17 games and was given the opportunity to start the year at left tackle. That ended badly, however, as he gave up 1.5 sacks to Titans’ pass rusher Arden Key in his first game. Penning was demoted to a backup role after five games in which he gave up four sacks and was penalized seven times.
Now Penning is penciled in as the starter at right tackle but veteran Ryan Ramczyk is on the Reserve/PUP list. Rookie Taliese Fuaga – who was one of the very best tackles in a talented tackle class – was a right tackle in college, but New Orleans has him on the left side.
Head coach Dennis Allen has stated that this is a “totally clean slate” for Penning. That seems awfully close to the dreaded “vote of confidence” given to a head coach on the hot seat.
The upside for Penning is that he does have experience at right tackle, having played both positions at Northern Iowa, and the Saints are rolling out a new offensive scheme, but a poor showing at right tackle and he’ll likely wind up right back on the bench.
It generally isn’t fair to say injured players are busts. So I can’t fault Cine for missing most of his rookie season following a gruesomely broken leg in the fourth game of his career.
The following year, however, Cine barely played. He logged 8 defensive snaps and 84 special teams snaps in 2023, while playing in just 7 games and suffering nagging hamstring injuries. Now, Cine seems to be dealing with another lower-body injury and is even behind the newly signed journeyman Bobby McCain on the depth chart.
Cine was a very exciting safety in college. He’s a bit light at 199 pounds, but has good length at 6’2 and rare speed for the position. That athletic upside is still there, provided the lower-body injuries haven’t sapped too much of it. Cine still has the potential to be an exciting safety in the NFL, but his opportunity with the Vikings could be slipping away.
