Democrats say Vice President Harris is putting the key swing states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada back in play after the party had just about lost any hope of holding onto them with President Biden on the ticket.
Former President Trump was pulling away from Biden in many of these states, according to numerous polls, but Harris appears to be at least closing the gap according to the few surveys that have been released in the last week.
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) predicted over the weekend that Harris would win his home state, while Harris campaign co-Chair Jen O'Malley Dillon wrote in a memo that the campaign is focusing on Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
“She’s going to stretch the map and force the Republicans to make adjustments in all of their plans,” said Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright.
Polling from The Hill and Emerson College released last week showed Harris closing the gap with Trump in several battleground states. In Georgia, Harris trailed Trump by 2 points, well within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of error. And in Arizona, she was behind the former president by 5 points. The same poll shows Harris outperforming Biden by 5 points in Arizona and 4 points in Georgia.
Polling outside of North Carolina and Nevada show a similar trend. A poll conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed Trump leading Harris by 3 points in North Carolina and by 2 points in Nevada. The same poll conducted earlier this month before Biden dropped out showed Trump leading Biden by 6 points in North Carolina and by 3 points in Nevada.
Democrats say the reason for Harris narrowing the gap is the energy she has brought to the top of the ticket. But they also point to her ability to galvanize and relate to various key voting blocs in the rapidly diversifying Sun Belt, which includes the Southeast and Southwestern regions of the country, and which is home to younger and more racially diverse voters.
“Frankly, I think she has the opportunity to perhaps outpace turnout with certain constituencies than Barack Obama was able to do in 2008,” Seawright said, referring to the population growth that has taken place in the region over the past 15 years.
“Her campaign represents something that Barack Obama did not have and the times we’re living through with the Republican Party being more extremist than they ever have been before,” he continued.
Campaign operatives say there is a clear difference in the energy felt on the ground since Biden dropped out, pointing to the Harris campaign’s weekend of action seen in states across the country.
In Arizona, which held its primary election Tuesday, the campaign engaged more than 1,300 people across 65 events throughout the state.
“It’s been a little over a week but it’s been by far and away our largest week,” said Sean McEnerney, coordinated campaign manager for the Harris campaign in Arizona.
“These are folks that have really liked Kamala Harris for a long time,” he continued, referring specifically to the Latino population in the state. “We’ve had the vice president visit a few times this year already, and I think the vice president connects really well with Latinos in Arizona.”
The coordinated campaign has 12 offices across Arizona with more than 80 full-time employees. Additionally, there are plans to double the team.
The shift in energy is also being felt in neighboring Nevada, which like Arizona is home to a competitive presidential and Senate race. Over the weekend in Nevada, the state Democratic Party said it had more than 1,200 new volunteers contact 40,000 voters.
“People are turning out in record numbers to volunteer, to sign up for campaign events, to attend campaign events, something we [weren't] seeing a couple of months ago,” said one Democratic strategist, referring to Nevada.
Meanwhile, Ossoff, who won a runoff Senate election in 2021 along with Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), which handed control of the upper chamber to Democrats, said the party’s newfound energy has made his home state once again competitive.
“I think that this is a true toss-up race in Georgia,” Ossoff said on MSNBC over the weekend. “I expect her to win Georgia. It’s going to take a mighty effort, the kind of effort that we summoned here in Georgia to deliver the state for President Biden in November of 2020, and to win those two historic Senate runoff victories in 2021.”
Democrats say the energy being felt in competitive Sun Belt states is even translating to more conservative states in the region, including Florida. Earlier this year, the Biden campaign signaled Florida was in play following developments on abortion access in the state, but Democrats quickly tamped down talk of putting the state in play as Biden faced questions about his fitness for office.
“The energy that is on the ground is not only contagious but it's all natural,” said Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party.
More than 10,000 new volunteers have signed up to support Harris and Democrats in Florida. But Florida, which is considered a red-leaning state, will be difficult for Harris to win. The same Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll showed Trump leading Harris 47 percent support to 39 percent in the state.
Republicans brush off the notion that Harris could ever make inroads in Florida and argue the energy seen for Harris on the ground and in the polls in the Sun Belt is “a sugar high.”
“Conceivably I understand why they are targeting North Carolina and Georgia. Obviously they are playing a demographics game on that front,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “I still see this as a short-term boost for her.”
