“All Quiet on the Western Front” took the 2023 Oscars by storm, racking up nine Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture. The German film won Best International Feature, Best Score, Best Cinematography and Best Production Design, but its BAFTA-nominated director, Edward Berger, was snubbed despite the Best Adapted Screenplay bid he shared with Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell. Now Berger seeks redemption with his 2024 thriller “Conclave,” which looks like an early Oscar favorite according to our current Gold Derby odds.
“Conclave” is a psychological thriller based on Robert Harris‘ 2016 novel of the same name. In the film, Cardinal Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes) is tasked with leading one of the world’s most secretive and ancient events, selecting a new Pope, where he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of The Church. It was scripted by Oscar-nominated screenwriter Peter Straughan (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”).
Berger currently ranks fourth in our 2025 Oscars Best Director odds. He’s predicted to be nominated alongside Steve McQueen (“Blitz”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) and Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”). That’s one spot higher than he was in 2023, when our odds had him in the fifth slot behind Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”), Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”), Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) and Todd Field (“TAR”). Ultimately, all four of them were nominated, but Berger was passed over for surprise nominee Ruben Ostlund (“Triangle of Sadness”).
Six of our Oscar Experts currently predict a 2025 nomination for Berger, along with nine Editors, nine Top 24 Users and 16 All-Stars. Early forecasts also predict “Conclave” bids for Best Picture, Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Best Supporting Actor (Stanley Tucci) and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Focus Features has set a November 1 theatrical release for “Conclave,” following its September premiere at the 2024 Toronto International Film Festival. It stars Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini.
PREDICT the 2025 Oscar nominations through January 17
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