The team is slipping, slipping away
The 2024 Royals are likely to end up winning at least 25 more games than the 2023 squad. In fact, this year’s team has already won more games than last year’s team and it isn’t even August yet. That’s amazing.
How did this team do it? What’s different than last year? First, the roster has largely been purged of replacement-level talent; among the 19 players with a negative WAR last year and at least 10 innings pitched or plate appearances accrued, 17 of them are no longer with the team. Second, Bobby Witt Jr. has ascended to superstardom and has somehow been significantly more productive than last year’s breakout season. And third, the starting pitching has been almost unfathomably better with three new starters.
But as time goes on, it seems more and more like the 2024 Royals are a mirage in the vein of another Royals team that got off to a hot start a year after losing 100 games: that of the Nosotros Creemos 2003 squad.
To be clear: the Royals are not a bad team! They have a very good run differential and are a winning team with their first, second, and third order winning percentages. Thus far, they have played well and have a winning record to show for it. In other words, they are not a fluke—they deserve the record they have.
However, look under the hood, and the data starts to look worse very quickly. Kansas City has played like a sub-.500 team for over two months now. On May 25, the Royals beat the Tampa Bay Rays to ascend to a 34-19 record. They lost the last game of the series the very next day, and since May 26 the Royals have gone 23-30. And while I’m usually not a big fan of looking at team-by-team opponent records, the Royals are 9-1 against the historically bad Chicago White Sox and 48-48 against everyone else.
Royals fans of a certain age can probably remember 2003 with a mixture of fondness and frustration. In 2003, there was no expectation for the Royals to be any good. The team jumped out to a 16-3 record after winning the first nine games of the season. Led by the ascendant five-tool superstar Carlos Beltran (sound familiar?), the team suffered through a terrible May before fighting back to a 54-42 record on July 20. They led the division by 6.5 games at that point.
We all knew what happened next, though. The Royals just couldn’t keep up. By the end of August, they gave up their division lead for good, and the team stumbled to the finish line by losing five of its last six games. The result? An 83-79 season—a fantastic 21-game improvement over their previous season—but no playoff berth. This year’s team and that 2003 team have been in lockstep over the last 30 games.
Stylistically, the 2003 Royals squad and the 2024 Royals squad couldn’t be any more different. The 2003 Royals had a horrendous collection of starting pitching; somehow, 15 different dudes started at least two games for the team. The 2024 Royals team, meanwhile, has had one of the best starting rotations in franchise history. And the 2024 Royals team is indeed the better team than the 2003 squad, as this year’s team has a legitimately good run differential and the 2003 team had a negative run differential.
At the same time, both teams have had pretty big flaws. One shared flaw has been the bullpen. In 2003, the Royals relief staff ranked 26th in the league with a 4.74 FIP. This year, the Royals bullpen ranks 23rd in the league with a 4.23 ERA. And outside of Bobby Witt Jr.’s brilliance, so many Royals position players this year have been toothless at the plate—nine guys this year have a wRC+ under 85, six of whom have a wRC+ under 75.
Are the 2024 Royals doomed to the same fate? No, they’re not. By virtue of the third Wild Card spot’s existence, the Royals have more chances than the 2003 squad. Additionally, a strong approach to the trade deadline could help shore up weaknesses, and the 2003 squad didn’t exactly light it up at the trade deadline.
However, their playoff odds have declined precipitously. On May 25, the Royals exceeded a 70% playoff chance. Now, we’re down to 43.8%, the seventh place in a field that has six slots.
I hope that this year’s team ends up on a better note than 2003. But they’ve been playing mediocre and inconsistent baseball for a long time now. They’ve got two months to shore it up. If they do, we can all point and laugh at this blog when we go to Kauffman Stadium to see some playoff ball. If they don’t, well, we’re going to be feeling a lot like we did in 2003, and hoping that 2025 doesn’t follow the trajectory of 2004.
