Trade policy under a Kamala Harris administration would probably look similar to the last four years with tariffs, trade sanctions and export controls. Based on his previous term, Donald Trump would do largely the same.
Both, however, would risk missing an opportunity to address illegal immigration, an issue of huge importance to millions of Americans. Although comprehensive immigration reform is needed (which includes border security and enforcing our laws), trade can help move the needle in addressing the root causes.
In just one example, a recent Gallup poll shows that Americans — some no doubt motivated by years of humanitarian issues at the border — by and large believe that undocumented immigration is an enormous problem. They’ve been anxious about it for years, but the anxiety has grown lately. Whoever wins in November will be under pressure to fix it.
How can trade policy help? Harris should know. As vice president, she provided a start.
Harris worked on behalf of the Biden administration to address the underlying reasons for illegal immigration from Central America and keyed in on the lack of economic opportunity for its people. The next president could use trade tools and help keep Central Americans on firmer economic footing in their home countries.
In 2021, President Biden appointed Harris to lead the administration’s diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of migration from the “Northern Triangle” at the top of Central America: El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data show that the number of immigrants coming from these countries has increased sharply over the last six years.
Harris traveled to Guatemala and met with President Alejandro Giammattei to discuss economic development, anti-corruption efforts and the promotion of human rights. She also traveled to Mexico and met with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to discuss border security and economic cooperation.
Many will remember the vice president, standing next to Giammattei in a news conference, warning potential undocumented immigrants with the words “Do not come.” Less publicized was that after her conversations with Central American and public and private sector leaders, she communicated a clear assessment of the problem.
What drives people to leave their home countries, she said, includes poverty, violence, corruption and — relevant especially to trade policy — the lack of prospects in their own communities. A White House press release stated that part of the solution was to improve economic conditions by creating jobs and enhancing living standards. This led to over $5 billion from public-private partnerships to address economic inequalities in the Northern Triangular countries.
A February 2023 White House press release announced several additional things, including a sportswear company committing to purchase up to $200 million in products from the region over a five-year period, microloans for female entrepreneurs, technical assistance for coffee producers, investments in state-of-the-art production facilities in garments and textile manufacturing and building out U.S. global supply chains across the region.
In March, further commitments were announced that included investments in steel production in Guatemala.
Each investment effort holds great promise. But if these businesses are to succeed, they need market access beyond the Northern Triangle. They need access to the United States market.
Many of these Central American sectors, such as wool fabrics, face steep U.S. tariffs of as much as 25 percent. Sportswear faces 23 percent, and iron and steel tubes and pipes face 18 percent. The list goes on.
Some U.S. domestic companies complain about sportswear imports from El Salvador, Guatemala or Honduras entering the U.S. duty-free. But policymakers must be honest with the public that there are no solutions, only trade-offs.
To put it bluntly, ask Americans what they feel more strongly about; curbing illegal immigration or keeping import taxes on clothing from Central America. The data is clear. Twenty-eight percent of Americans — which would project to 93.3 million people — say illegal immigration is the most important problem. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show U.S. employment for textile mills, product mills and apparel manufacturing at 280,000.
Every job counts, but each American should have a say. And poll and after poll show that illegal immigration is more important to them.
The investment commitments Kamala Harris and her team secured are impressive. As president, Harris — or Trump, if he’s willing — can translate those commitments into sustainable economic opportunities for people in the Northern Triangle and curb illegal immigration.
Christine McDaniel is a senior research fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
