With a 4-1 win over New Zealand, Guinea is the last step for the USA to reach the quarterfinals of the men’s 2024 Olympics tournament. They can secure a spot in the next round with a win in their final group-stage game against Guinea.
The United States has this great opportunity because it was so good in its last time out. They scored against the Kiwis early, and they scored against the Kiwis often.
Djordje Mihailovic opened the scoring in the eighth minute by converting a penalty. Four minutes later, Walker Zimmerman gave the Americans a 2-0 lead with a tap-in after a goal-line scramble. Gianluca Busio made it a three-goal lead inside half an hour with a shot from twelve yards out. Paxten Aaronson put the icing on the cake less than ten minutes into the second half.
New Zealand was able to pull a goal back for a more respectable-looking scoreline, however. As a result, the USA went from a positive one-goal difference down to an even goal difference, which could become an important tiebreaker.
The surest way for the United States to advance to the quarterfinals is to beat Guinea. It’s a classic case of “win and you’re in.” But there are other scenarios in which the USA can advance, even without a win.
The Americans could advance with a draw, as long as New Zealand does not win their game against France. If the USMNT were to draw and New Zealand were to lose, the Americanswould advance with four points to New Zealand’s three. If New Zealand and the US were both to draw, each team would have four points, but the USA would advance with the better goal difference.
The Americans can advance, even with a loss, but that is where things get dicey. The only way the USA could stay in the tournament with a loss would be to lose to Guinea by a single goal and hope that France beats New Zealand. And as the full USMNT learned at the end of World Cup Qualifying in 2017, and at this year’s Copa America, it’s better not to leave the fate of the team in the hands of other games.
Like the US, Guinea can advance to the knockout rounds. This is despite having lost both of their games. Their path, however, is not as straightforward as the Americans’. They would need a win against the US, a France win against New Zealand, and for the goal-difference tiebreaker to go their way.
So far at these Olympics, Guinea is winless. It played New Zealand in their opener and fell 2-1, with Amadou Diawara scoring the goal. In their second game, they gave a very good account of themselves against the hosts. They held France scoreless until the 75th minute, before conceding the eventual winner.
Their roster for these games is light on international experience but has plenty of European club experience. Eight of their 18 players are based at French clubs. An additional two players are based in Spain. Meanwhile, their captain, Naby Keita, is based at Werder Bremen in Germany.
As things stand, France is at the top of Group A with six points. The United States is second, and thus in a spot to go through, but only based on goal differential. New Zealand is also on three points. However, the dominating performance against the Kiwis sank their goal differential to minus-two, while the Americans are even. Guinea has lost both of its games by one goal, leaving it with zero points and a minus-two goal differential.
Tuesday’s game against Guinea kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. Coverage is available on USA Network for English-language audiences. Spanish-language coverage is on Telemundo.
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