If the 2025 Oscar nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the nominees and winners? Our predictions center officially opened on July 1, 2024 and already more than 2,300 people have made their nominations forecasts in the eight top categories for picture, directing, acting and writing. So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the initial Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our Oscar racetrack odds, updated on July 29. (See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16 and July 23.) Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: Toni Collette in Best Supporting Actress for the Warner Bros. thriller “Juror #2.” She was previously nominated in this same category for “The Sixth Sense” (1999).
Gold Derby’s odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will be updating the predictions center weekly by adding, deleting and changing contenders whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.
SEE Oscars 2025: Make your extremely early nominee predictions today!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 15/2
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
3. “Blitz” — 9/1
4. “Conclave” — 9/1
5. “Anora” — 19/2
6. “Emilia Perez” — 12/1
7. “Joker: Folie à Deux” — 14/1
8. “Nickel Boys” — 18/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 18/1
10. “A Real Pain” — 30/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “Wicked,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Nightbitch,” “Hard Truths”
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 9/2
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 9/2
3. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 11/2
4. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 8/1
5. Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”) — 11/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”), Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Todd Phillips (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), Pedro Almodovar (“The Room Next Door”)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 9/2
2. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 11/2
3. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 6/1
4. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 13/2
5. Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 7/1
Predicted Spoilers
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), June Squibb (“Thelma”), Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 7/2
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 6/1
4. John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”) — 17/2
5. Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”) — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”), Ethan Herisse (“Nickel Boys”), Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness”), Tom Hanks (“Here”)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 4/1
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/2
3. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 11/2
4. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 11/2
5. Toni Collette (“Juror #2”) — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) — 19/5
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 9/2
3. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 5/1
4. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 13/2
5. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 15/2
Predicted Spoilers
John Lithgow (“Conclave”), Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”), Paul Raci (“Sing Sing”), Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”), Pedro Pascal (“Gladiator II”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 71/20
2. “Conclave” — 9/2
3. “Nickel Boys” — 6/1
4. “Nightbitch” — 8/1
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “Hit Man,” “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Gladiator II,” “A Complete Unknown”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 18/5
2. “Blitz” — 9/2
3. “A Real Pain” — 11/2
4. “Emilia Perez” — 15/2
5. “Hard Truths” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Room Next Door,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Challengers,” “The Substance,” “Didi”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
PREDICT the 2025 Oscar nominees through January 17
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