Summary and Key Points: Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 presidential race has reshaped the electoral landscape, potentially boosting Democrat chances while leaving the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a tight race.
-New Fox News polls indicate a close competition in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with Harris enjoying higher favorability among voters concerned about abortion. At the same time, Trump leads on issues like the economy and immigration.
-Harris's upcoming VP pick, likely from a battleground state, could further influence the race. Candidates like Senator Mark Kelly and Governor Josh Shapiro are considered, aiming to secure key states.
Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 race was a paradigm-shifting moment, the contours of which won’t be clear until November when tens of millions of Americans cast their vote. What we know now is that Biden’s exit likely improves Democrat’s chances of retaking the White House, although Trump may still maintain his statistical edge. The race, of course, will be decided in the battleground states where new Fox News polling suggests the race is tight.
One of the quirks of the electoral college system is the resulting emphasis on battleground states. The election, within which over one hundred million voters will participate, will ultimately come down to a few voters in a few states. Georgia. Arizona. Pennsylvania. Michigan. Wisconsin. The states that are up for grabs, which either candidate could claim.
And it’s not just a few battleground states that will determine the election – most votes in our polarized electorate know precisely where they stand – but a few counties in a few states – where undecided suburban voters reside.
So, really, the 2024 presidential election is going to come down to a few soccer moms in Pittsburgh, Decatur, and Grand Rapids.
Fox News found that voters in four battleground states – Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – approve of Biden’s withdrawal from the race. “The survey finds the horserace between Harris and former President Donald Trump looks a lot like the Biden-Trump race did in April – extremely close,” Fox News reported. “Harris and Trump are tied in two states (Michigan and Pennsylvania). Trump is ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin, and Harris is up by 6 in Minnesota.”
Digging deeper, the survey reveals a more nuanced look at the race. Harris enjoys a higher favorability rating than Trump—except for in Michigan, where the two candidates are tied. Harris is especially favored among voters who answered that abortion is their top issue for the 2024 election. Trump, meanwhile, registered large margins over Harris with voters who prioritized the economy and immigration.
Harris, acutely aware of her traction in the battleground states, will select a running mate who helps boost her chances in the battleground. The entire shortlist consists of picks who hail from battleground states that could break for either Harris or Trump.
The calculus holds that, in picking a battleground-associated candidate, that battleground will ultimately break for Harris. So, picking Senator Mark Kelly theoretically could put Harris over the top in Arizona; picking Governor Josh Shapiro could put Harris over the top in Pennsylvania; and so on. That’s the theory, anyway.
Sarah Palin was supposed to win back independents while invigorating the base, but that backfired. But expect the battleground polls to shift once Harris picks her VP in the next few weeks. Expect either Kelly or Shapiro. And expect a bump for Harris in the state from which the VP hails.
Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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