What if the Royals took a big swing in the trade market
Cody Bellinger makes no sense to me. How can a player bounce up and down in value as extremely as this guy without having major injuries? He won an MVP award in 2019 and was on pace for 4.5ish wins in the shortened 2020 season at ages 23 and 24 respectively. It looked like he had a shot at being one of the best players of this generation. Then in 2021 he fell off a cliff. He hit .165/.240/.302 and posted -1.0 fWAR. In 2023 he bounced back after a change in scenery at age 27. Maybe the ship was righted, though no one in the free agency market seemed willing to give him a huge, long-term guarantee.
They were seemingly right not to give him a monster deal. He has not been bad this season, but he has not been particularly good either. He still could be an upgrade for the Royals if used correctly though. So far this season he is hitting .269/.331/.410 while playing slightly below-average center field with some right field and first base thrown in there. He has only been worth slightly over one win by both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference’s reckoning. That means he has barely been worth more than Kyle Isbel, like within the margin of error barely, and he is way more expensive and bats left-handed like Isbel. On the surface, it would be a terrible idea to add him to the roster.
Here’s the rub - Cody Bellinger has reverse splits over the past two seasons. He has been hitting lefties well. In 2023 he had a 164 wRC+ against southpaws and is at 119 this season. Isbel cannot hit lefties. His 54 wRC+ against them this year has really been a problem with Garret Hampson having to fill in there at times due to it although he is still below league average against both right and left. Bellinger also comes with the upside of MVP-level production at least being possible. That is unlikely, but last time he switched teams he went back to hitting more like his early promise suggested he might. It would allow the Royals to deploy Isbel more selectively and as a defensive replacement late in games, which I think is the role he is really suited for anyway.
Here are the two big problems with this strategy. One is obvious, Bellinger has two player options for 2025 and 2026 at $27.5 million and $25 million. Do you want to be holding a $50+ million bag on a player this mercurial? Probably not, but it could work out and the Royals don’t have an obvious center fielder for those two seasons. The Cubs might be willing to eat some of that money and it would make it easier for the Royals to trade without having to give up any high-level talent, which is good since they don’t have a lot. It is just a lot of risk to take on, and I don’t know how that would change Sherman and Picollo’s plans for how to approach the next two seasons.
The other problem is that he might not even be as good as his numbers look so far this year. Rest of season projections all have him hitting slightly better than he has so far this year, but expected stats do not like his production this season at all. His xBA is a paltry .234 and is xSLG is .377, both significantly lower than the current actual values. June is the only month he has posted a wRC+ below 100, so he has been steadily above average, but he has fallen off of a cliff before.
Am I advocating for the Royals to actually do this? I am still not sure I have convinced myself. The Royals with Cody Bellinger are probably better in 2024 than they would be without him, but the longer-term implications make it a little bit scary to actually pull the trigger. There is also a chance that he comes to KC, has a big resurgence, and puts up huge playoff numbers then decides not to take the player option to retest free agency. The different outcomes that could come from his addition are many and varied (risk). It is a high risk, high reward play that I am not sure the team has the stomach for.
