Just a week after President Biden upended the presidential race with his withdrawal from the ticket, despite Donald Trump maintaining his lead, early polling suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris is certainly an improvement over Biden thus far.
Indeed, while polling is limited so shortly after Harris was effectively crowned Democratic nominee, the polls conducted since Biden stepped aside reveal that her impact has been noticeable.
As a recent CNN poll shows, Harris outperforms Biden by 3 points in a hypothetical matchup vs. Trump, cutting Trump’s 6-point lead over Biden in late June to just a 3-point lead (49 percent to 46 percent) for the former president in the most recent survey.
Harris, like any nominee, was due for a honeymoon period, or a “Harris Honeymoon” as GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio called it. Whether or not she can sustain this momentum once the honeymoon ends, remains to be seen.
However, for now, the CNN poll points to a reenergized Democratic ticket, with Harris outperforming Biden nationally, in swing states, and with key voter blocs.
Harris is outperforming her former running mate by 9 points with independents, 8 points with voters of color and 6 points with both voters 35 years or younger and women.
New York Times/Siena polling points to similar findings, namely that Harris is considerably stronger among Black, Hispanic and voters under 30 years old than Biden had been prior to his withdrawal.
Moreover, it isn’t just that Harris appears to be bringing Democratic voters back into the fold, but as the CNN poll also shows, voters are more excited about supporting her than they had been about supporting Biden.
When asked whether their vote was for Harris or against Trump, it was an even 50-50 split. That divide is telling: In late June, CNN showed that more than 6 in 10 (63 percent) Biden voters said their vote was against Trump, rather than for Biden.
Further, Harris’ presence on the ticket — or simply Biden’s absence — is improving the situation for Democrats in critical swing states.
An Emerson poll from July 25 shows Harris polling above Biden by 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin and 3 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In that same vein, in an election that increasingly looks like it will be determined by whichever side best turns out its base, any surge in momentum cannot be overlooked.
These numbers certainly indicate that the enthusiasm gap has narrowed and Harris is the breath of fresh air Democrats desperately need, but Democrats must be careful not to be overzealous.
Indeed, in the swing states that will determine this election, Trump leads Harris in four of the five – Arizona (Trump +5), Georgia and Pennsylvania (Trump +2) and Michigan (Trump +1) — with Wisconsin tied at 47 percent, according to the Emerson poll.
Similarly, in the six public polls that have come out after Biden’s withdrawal, Trump leads in four of them, with an average lead of 2 points across all six, per RealClearPolitics.
Put another way, while these early polls show that Harris has made considerable gains, nationwide and with critical voter blocs, Harris still has a lot to prove. The last time she was a candidate for national office, her candidacy ended before the first primary, amid a disjointed campaign and finger-pointing.
To be sure, given how fast Harris ascended to the top of the ticket, it is legitimate to ask how much of Harris’ improved numbers vis-à-vis Biden against Trump are due to general Democratic relief and how much is genuine enthusiasm for her candidacy.
However, the one thing that cannot be denied is that Harris has reinvigorated a Democratic Party that had spent the last month consumed by infighting over Biden’s candidacy. The record-high fundraising Harris saw in her first 24 hours as the presumptive Democratic pick, and the rapidity with which party leaders coalesced around her is evidence of that.
The polls, however, suggest that for now, most voters see Kamala Harris as an improvement over Joe Biden.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”
