The 2024 Oakland A’s are 7-2 since the All-Star break. Are they truly a .778 ballclub? Probably not. They are 14-7 in July, but in all likelihood they are also not a .667 team. The question is: have the 2024 turned an actual corner or have they simply had a nice month?
Regardless of the answer, one thing stands out: if you like “parallel paths” (and it seems to be an A’s favorite term these days), there are some uncanny parallels if you zero in on two snapshots in time. That’s not to say what will happen in the coming year, but follow me through this time warp...
2014-2019
In 2014 the A’s, fresh off of 2 straight division titles, were flying high for half a season boasting the best record in MLB. But a second half collapse doomed them to blow the division and settle for a one-game wild card game they lost.
This began a fall from grace that saw the A’s lose bigly (and boringly) in 2015, 2016, and the first half of 2017, 2.5 years of fail.
Then in the second half of 2017 up came an infusion of young talent, in this case Matts Chapman and Olson along with the emergence of Marcus Semien.
The second half of 2017 was a turning point as the “younger and more athletic A’s” rose to back to prominence in 2018 and 2019 as 97-win teams.
2021-present
Following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season in which the A’s made it 3 — or was it 2.3 — seasons in a row as post-season clubs, 2021 marked the “Groundhog Day” start of the 2014 cycle. Did someone break a mirror? Because 7 years later...
In 2021 the A’s looked like they were on their way to another trip to the post-season, until suddenly they collapsed in the second half and sunk so far that they missed even the wild card party.
That began a cycle of doom that saw Oakland put last place teams on the field in 2022 and 2023 and the first half of 2024. While waiting for an infusion of fresh young talent to emerge. Sound familiar?
Now it’s July and the A’s look like a different team — and in some ways they are. This cycle’s “Matts and Marcus” appear to be Lawrence Butler, Jacob Wilson, and Tyler Soderstrom, one breaking out, one about to burst onto the scene (hamstring willing), and one possibly ready to emerge. Max Schuemann has also offered versatility, patience and contact skills sorely lacking team wide April-June.
Certainly these A’s look and feel different from the Aledmys Diaz, too much Seth Brown and Tyler Nevin, “Is Abraham Toro our best hitter?” group of flawed veterans clogging the lineup and competing to be the quickest to strike out 100 times.
The hope, of course, is that the pattern persists and the 2025 A’s are poised to breakout as a team — which at the moment would only mean continuing to win almost as much as they have the past month.
The question, of course, is whether the talent on the roster will allow for a team that can sustain success over an entire season. One area not yet mentioned is the pitching, clearly a key component for any team.
Pitching
Whether or not 2018-19’s A’s featured great starting pitchers is debatable. What they featured, though, was starting pitchers who performed well at that time. Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Chris Bassitt, Kendall Graveman, Frankie Montas, Daniel Mengden, and Edwin Jackson all had ups and downs to their careers with as many downs as ups. But they anchored a solid rotation in 2018-19.
The 2024-25 A’s? Certainly there is potential in the “wicked movement stuff” of Mitch Spence and the still only 22-year old “Bulldog mentality” Joey Estes. Paul Blackburn can lay claim to being the most accomplished of the starting pitchers and perhaps a mid-rotation SP when healthy.
At the same time, along with JP Sears and Hogan Harris you see a cadre of “back end SP types” in search of an ace — or even a solid #2 SP. Finding a true “front of the rotation” SP, be it via hanging onto Mason Miller and moving him into a SP role or striking unexpected gold with a current pitcher’s development or the signing of a “reclamation project” who exceeds expectations, might be most key to answering the question of whether these A’s are on the verge of something real.
If you’re inclined towards hope, remember that everything the A’s have done in July has been entirely without Darell Hernaiz, just about entirely without Wilson (1 AB), and mostly without Soderstrom (25 PA). And last year’s best player, Zack Gelof, has not gotten it going, not even close.
But even if it’s just nice run and there are still too many holes, July’s exploits show how quickly the tide can turn in baseball and what a difference a little roster turnover can make if the new players are talented enough. And there is more talent in the pipeline with Cooper Bowman raking at AA, Denzel Clarke hitting his stride at AA, and Colby Thomas just one call away from LF. And who knows what the next 51.5 hours might bring in terms of trades designed to bolster the future roster.
Excited for 2025? Or just resigned to enjoying a fun run in a small 2024 sample? Either way I can’t wait for the next game — which happens to be at 1:07pm with Osvaldo Bido on the mound for the A’s as they go for a 4-game sweep of the Angels.
