Paddy Pimblett and King Green meet Saturday in the featured bout of UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Last event: 3-2
UFC main cards, 2024: 61-54-3
There’s no question England’s own Pimblett (21-3 MMA, 5-0 UFC) is the overwhelming fan favorite in Manchester, where the former Cage Warriors champion will try to keep his star on the rise by winning his seventh consecutive fight overall, including five in the UFC. After finishing his first three UFC bouts against what could be considered “lesser” competition, Pimblett has fought to unanimous decision wins in his past two bouts over veterans Jared Gordon and Tony Ferguson. … Green (32-15-1 MMA, 13-10-1 UFC), another tough veteran, should present a stern challenge. He’s won three of his past four fights, most recently putting on a beatdown of Jim Miller in April.
Serving as an eye-catching lightweight attraction is a showdown between Green and Pimblett.
I really don’t mean to jump any sort of train, whether they’re hype or hate-based. However, I can’t help but question the skills ceiling that people are seeing when they’re so confidently getting behind Pimblett.
Aside from the undeniable fact that Pimblett has been handled with kid gloves as a promotional darling who has received favorable treatment in and out of the octagon from organizations to judges alike, I’m not hearing anyone cite any actual high-level skills, much less basic processes when breaking down Pimblett’s fights.
It’s nothing personal to “Paddy the Baddy,” whom I appreciate greatly for using his platform to speak out on such issues as mental health. I just don’t see what everyone is writing home about when looking at his lack of depth as a fighter.
Not only does Pimblett still keep his chin sky high in exchanges, but I’m not seeing a reliable process in regards to consistently getting fights into his submission wheelhouse as he moves up the ranks.
Green, on the other hand, is a criminally underrated fighter who has had the opposite luck as Pimblett both in life and when it comes to the scorecards given that the veteran is largely a counter-striker who works the body (a notorious and at this point undeniable blindspot for the judges).
That said, I suspect that Green – so long as he doesn’t end up getting club-and-subbed early off of something stupid – will end up punishing Pimblett like never before should this hit the mid-to-later rounds.
The pick is “King” Green by third-round TKO.
“You come at the king, you best not miss.” – Omar Little
Despite the oddsmakers opening the American as a near 2-to-1 favorite, public money has pushed this fight to pick’em odds, listing Green -114 and Pimblett -106, according to FanDuel.
As the featured bout, Pimblett and Green are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET. The fight will stream on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 304.
