As Republicans aim to inject more religion into public schools, the landscape of private schooling could change.
Red states are adding chaplains to district health programs, requiring the Ten Commandments in every classroom and mandating that the Bible be taught in lesson plans — increasingly offering a Christian education at a public school price.
The new measures are being litigated in the courts, but a future where they are found legal could mean a significant shift in private school enrollment.
"All this is predicated on these things not being struck down in court and actually being implemented in the public schools. If they're actually implemented in the schools, I do think you'll see more kind of progressives and just, generally, non-religious families seeking out private schooling,” said Neil McCluskey, director for the Center for Educational Freedom at CATO Institute.
Louisiana was sued almost immediately after its law mandating the Ten Commandments was signed, with the state-ordered posters on hold amid the legal challenge.
Florida and Texas have not faced any lawsuits over their shift to allow chaplains to work as school counselors, but but one could be waiting in the wings as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said he would not allow individuals from the Temple of Satan to participate in the program.
Oklahoma has also not yet faced a legal challenge over its new requirement to integrate the Bible into school lesson plans, but a push in the state to establish the nation's first openly religious charter school was struck down last month.
While some say these moves are clearly unconstitutional, experts admit it is a ripe time to push them.
"If we didn't have this extreme shift to the right with the U.S. Supreme Court, that would be a very easy question. Yes, [the laws] would be struck down [...] but the current Supreme Court has not shown a lot of hesitancy in reversing earlier precedent, and so all bets are off,” said Kevin Welner, professor at the University of Colorado Boulder in the School of Education,.
“And clearly that's what the legislators are thinking. They're thinking, ‘Well, sure, there's precedent, but the Supreme Court could easily overturn it,’ and I guess I would think the odds are that the court would,” Welner added.
If such laws are upheld and more states follow suit, experts say enrollment in private schools could be shaken up in multiple ways: Families with students currently in private Christian academies could decide public schools are now an acceptable — and much cheaper — option, while those seeking to avoid Christian indoctrination might flee to private institutions.
The states passing these laws are also in favor of the school choice movement, with many instituting education savings accounts (ESAs), which give parents a certain stipend to pursue education options other than their area public school.
Currently, at least five states have implemented universal ESA accounts and multiple others have some version of the program on the books.
“I do think that in the context of the growth of taxpayer-funded private school, in other words, voucher laws [...] I guess I'll say with public schools, there's incentive for those parents now to take taxpayer money and take their kids out of public schools” and go to private, secular ones, Welner said.
“I think it's going to be true to some small extent. How much that happens probably depends on how much religion is infused into the public schools, but it’s an easier exit because of taxpayer-funded vouchers. It might increase the number of people who leave because of objections to the infusion of religion in public schools,” he added.
McCluskey notes, however, that "most private schools tend to be religious."
"And then the ones that aren't religious tend to be the higher cost independent private schools, so there would have more difficulty if you're looking for non-religious schooling options.” he said. “At least in the short term, if there were clear growing demand for private options that were not religious, I think you'd see more supply grow.”
There are approximately 30,000 private schools in the United States, with around 5.5 million students in attendance as of 2021.
The largest group of private schools is Catholic institutions at 33.4 percent. Secular schools come in second at 25.5 percent, and the rest are religious but non-Catholic.
"I think you would see some people going to the public school who've been in private schools," McCluskey said. "That said, I don't think you'd see a big exodus because a lot of private schoolers, at least from the ones I hear from, [...] want an education that is heavily religious. So not just there's some praying and some Bible reading, but that it's sort of suffused in everything."
Christian schools, for their part, say they are encouraged to see some religion back in public schools, but emphasize their approach is completely different.
"While I do believe that people need to be shaped by an objective standard of law, like the Ten Commandments, unless we're directly engaging the students to help anchor them in the world God has created, then all they're learning is content, information or propositional ideas,” said Michael Phillips, headmaster at Smith Prep, a Christian school in Florida.
“And I don't think education, and I don't think most Christian educators believe that propositional information is the end of education. So just by introducing those elements into a public school, for example, doesn't mean that the public school is doing what is right by that information, if all they're doing is giving them information to regurgitate out,” Phillips added.
