VENEZUELA may descend into civil war as its Putin-backed dictator has warned of a “bloodbath” if he loses tomorrow’s election.
President Nicolas Maduro, 61, has ruled the South American country for 11 years and is set to do whatever it takes to cling on to power.
The autocrat has become increasingly unpopular; the country’s economy has shrunk 80 percent in a decade, seen massive hyperinflation and skyrocketing poverty.
He is widely accepted to have rigged the 2018 vote, where he picked up 68 per cent of ballots.
That set off a struggle with the opposition claiming their own rival president in Juan Guaido.
But ruthless Maduro was able to face down the crisis after turning to brutal violence as the country came to the brink of collapse.
The tyrant’s goons were even recorded on video driving over his own people in armoured cars.
Maduro survived mass protests, a Rambo-style coup run by ex-US special forces, and 57 countries, including the UK and US, recognising Guaido as the legitimate president.
Last year Maduro even threatened to invade neighbour Guyana for oil, despite his country already having the largest reserves in the world.
Despite polls showing Maduro set to lose this election, the strongman is again digging in.
The former bus driver has already begun to front-foot the opposition disputing the results.
At a rally Thursday he said: “If they jump a red light [by questioning the results], they will regret it for 200 years. It will be the last mistake they make in their political lives.
“There will be an iron fist and justice for the violent fascist protesters and the racists.”
Last Sunday he also threatened: “If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success, the greatest victory in the electoral history of our people.”
But experts have told The Sun that Maduro would get the army shooting civilians on the streets to save his skin.
Andre Masuko said Maduro’s popularity had collapsed in recent years and he was 40 to 50 per cent behind in polling.
The research analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at the Economist Intelligence Unit said that Maduro was stepping up threats as the vote neared.
He said: “We think that he’s inciting violence because he knows he’s going to lose in a free and fair vote.
“And he’s trying to create a a climate of political tension precisely to impose fear on dissent.”
Masuko said both sides would likely declare victory following the election – with the opposition launching protests against the likely fraud.
“We do not think that Maduro will accept defeat. We think that Maduro will manipulate the results on election day.”
And if both sides dug in a repeat of the 2019 protests that could even turn into a civil war.
Nicolas Maduro started out life as a bus driver in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas.
But, he became a trade union official and started to get involved with hard left-wing politics.
At 24 he shifted to Cuba and underwent training with other South American leftist groups.
Maduro became a supporter of Hugo Chavez and campaigned to release him after Chavez was arrested for a failed coup in 1992.
Chavez became president in 1999 and went about wrecking the democratic institutions, checks and balances, and strengthening his own cronies and carrying out a “socialist revolution” in the country.
In 1998, aged 36, Maduro was elected to the country’s parliament, the National Assembly, where he became speaker from 2005 to 2006.
In 2006, Chavez appointed Maduro as foreign minister.
In 2012, he became vice president, but more importantly, in 2011 he had been designated by Chavez as his successor.
In 2013, Chavez died and Maduro took control of the country. In 2015 the National Assembly gave Maduro the power to rule by decree.
His regime has become increasingly isolated from the West and in faced a rival president following his rigged 2018 election.
Months later violent protests erupted in the country leaving over 100 dead. On January 23, 2019, a small scale coup tried to oust him.
Masuko said: “I mean we we cannot discount the possibility of a civil war, but I would say it is unlikely.”
The analyst said that in Maduro’s favour was that millions of people who opposed him had already fled the country, those who opposed him feared him, and he still had the army’s loyalty.
But if the scale of the protests became too large, then Maduro would follow through on his threats.
Masuko said: “He will eventually need to resort to to violence to ensure his political survival.”
Maduro could start to worry about the military’s loyalty in a scenario where he uses a clear case of fraud to win, like banning opposition or invalidating results.
If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success, the greatest victory in the electoral history of our people
Nicolas Maduro
“I don’t think they will defect, but it will be more difficult to stand by Maduro.”
Senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Dr Christopher Sabatini said in that case Maduro might turn to another violent ally to defeat protesters.
Maduro could summon the ‘Colectivos’ – far-left paramilitaries and criminal organisations – to carry out the violence.
Those gangs have already killed hundreds of political opponents and have been accused of committing war crimes by human right organisations.
Sabatini said: “You’re talking about organizations that are completely unaccountable, ones that don’t fear, if you will, an ICC or a National Criminal Court Indictment, or don’t fear being sanctioned.”
Another ally who could help Maduro may be Vladimir Putin.
Nicholas Maduro has been in power in Venezuela for 11 years.
His authoritarian grip on the country and disrespect for human rights has seen him undermine free and fair elections in a number of ways.
One way he does so is by jailing his political opponents or banning them from running.
Most notably at this election was María Corina Machado.
Mochado, a former conservative lawmaker, has captured the attention of broad swathes of the public and draws massive crowds wherever she goes.
She has promised to “bury socialism forever” and create a nation where “the criminals and the corrupt go to prison.”
Machado has promised sweeping reforms and she overwhelmingly won a primary of opposition parties in October last year.
But, in January a court ruled that Machado cannot participate in any elections for 15 years due to supposed financial irregularities while she was a legislator.
Maduro has even recently stripped Machado of her bodyguard and arrested her security adviser, the latest in a number of arrests in her team.
Who Maduro has let run is Edmundo González Urrutia, a little known diplomat who represented the country in Argentina and Algeria.
If Urrutia was to win, Machado may well be the power behind the throne.
The Russians are pals with Venezuela and Putin has helped the country during its hyperinflation crisis.
Russia has also provided advisers and equipment to the Venezuelan military and recently sent two warships there.
Sabatini said: “Russia has been colluding with the Maduro Government to evade sanctions, supposedly also to launder illegally mined gold in Venezuela.”
Another way Putin could help Maduro is by blocking other countries from forcing a peaceful outcome through military intervention.
One unknown of the election is how those neighbouring countries will react to a violent outcome.
Maduro’s economic catastrophe has led to 8million people to already flee the country, with another 8million saying to pollsters they are ready to leave.
Countries like Brazil and Colombia would want a peaceful resolution in Venezuela to stop the flow of millions of migrants over their borders.
Sabatini said: “Colombia and Brazil now have some real skin in this game.
“They have a real stake in making sure there’s no violence, and that their elections are relatively free and fair.”
If Brazil needed to send in its army to secure peace, Lula would likely do so through the UN, like he had done with Haiti.
But Putin could block it at the UN Security Council giving Maduro the protection to suppress the protests at his leisure.
“So you’re going to have the issue of Russia, probably trying to block anything that would weaken or even undermine its ally in South America.
“You’re you’re facing a real dire situation here.”
Sabatini said it was unlikely that Maduro would try and cancel the elections as he would lose too much face.
“He would look very weak. He would look scared.”
But, with economic conditions so dire, the loyalty of parts of the military could be up for grabs.
Junior officers and soldiers have felt the financial pain in the country, with some even defecting to Colombia in the past.
Sabatini said: “Foot soldiers have suffered and their families. Many of them have fled the country. They realize very much the economic and political pain the Maduro Government has inflicted on the country.
“No general wants to give an order that won’t be obeyed.
“A massive civil war won’t happen, however, isolated pockets of violence again through private militias like, I said, with the Colectivos
is very popular, is very possible.”
In a repeat of 2019, Venezuela could see mass protests, rival presidents, and Maduro using loyal parts of the army and Colectivos to crush any opposition and keep himself in power.
