Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and U.S. Navy’s F/A-XX programs will continue despite rumors of their demise. These programs aim to replace the F-22 Raptor and F/A-18 Super Hornet, respectively.
-Both have reached a pre-Milestone B phase, suggesting progress towards development, but they have different goals and requirements, making a merger unlikely.
-Despite significant investments, the costs and necessity of these programs are under scrutiny. Decisions on their continuation are critical as the services must avoid past mistakes and ensure these programs meet strategic needs effectively.
The rumors of the death of the United States Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and United States Navy's F/A-XX programs have been greatly exaggerated it would seem. Reports earlier this month suggested the respective efforts to develop the services' future aircraft – which would replace the F-22 Raptor and F/A-18 Super Hornet – had been shot down before they could even take flight.
That was until this week when Bill LaPlante, the United States Department of Defense's (DoD's) undersecretary of defense for acquisition, made clear the programs will continue, albeit possibly while evolving from the original program goals.
"I think they’re going to figure it out," LaPlante said during the Farnborough Airshow – the UK's largest aviation event. "It's not going to stop. It's going to continue. It's just going to be, well, better informed."
As reported by Aviation Week, both the Air Force's NGAD and Navy's F/A-XX programs have reached a pre-Milestone B phase, which is just ahead of awarding a contract for engineering and manufacturing development. It is still unclear which defense contractors are involved in the program; except that Northrop Grumman had previously it wasn't competing for the NGAD program. That has led to speculation that the former effort could be down to a competition between Lockheed Martin and Boeing.
It should be noted too that the services' programs have different goals and requirements, so there is little chance the efforts could be merged – even as a cost-cutting measure.
As stated, the Air Force is looking for a replacement for its F-22 Raptor air superiority fighter and NGAD has been described as a system of systems that includes a manned fighter that could be supported by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) acting as "loyal wingman," and enhanced by greater network capabilities.
The Navy has held its cards close to the chest regarding the F/A-XX, but it is known that the goal of the program is to develop a carrier-based replacement for the multirole F/A-18 Super Hornet. The sea service only recently concluded a deal with Boeing for the final block of the Super Hornets, with the last of the aircraft set to enter service by the end of the decade.
It would seem that Boeing, which produced the Super Hornet, could have an edge with the Navy's program, while the same could be suggested with Lockheed Martin as it developed both the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation multirole fighter.
There is no guarantee that the costs involved in developing the respective aircraft won't result in a change of course for either or even both of the programs.
Aviation Week further suggested that the Pentagon still needs to ensure there is a "need" for both aircraft.
"It can't be that everything that starts, even before you go into full-scale development, has to continue," LaPlante said in response to a question from Aviation Week. "That would be crazy. On the other hand, you have to provide the stability to the industry, to the warfighter, to continue with your themes and follow through on what you’re going to do."
A lot of money has already been spent on the NGAD, but the question is whether it could accurately be invested – especially if the Air Force is getting cold feet about the potential costs.
As previously reported by Brandon J. Weichert for The National Interest, "Since 2015, the United States Congress has appropriated $4.2 billion (and counting) for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Program. The goal is to replace the F-22 Raptor Fifth-Generation air superiority fighter that was prematurely discontinued during the height of the 2008 Financial Crisis and subsequent federal budget battle. In the eyes of US defense planners, a gaping hole in America's strategic defenses (as well as the pocketbooks of defense contractors) has existed since the F-22 program was unceremoniously discontinued in 2009."
In other words, the U.S. Air Force needs to ensure it needs the NGAD. It was previously sure it needed the B-2 Spirit, only to cut the program down to 20 production aircraft. As noted, it then cut the size of the F-22 fleet, and has scaled back on the number of the F-15EX it will acquire. There is speculation brewing that the future B-21 Raider program could be similarly reduced.
At the same time, the Air Force has sought to retire older aircraft to save money that could be directed to other projects. Critics have questioned whether the Air Force leadership realizes that it should actually operate warplanes.
But, the U.S. Navy is in a similar (proverbial) boat, seeing the missteps it made with its Zumwalt-class stealth destroyers and Littoral Combat Ships (LCS). Neither of those platforms proved suited for the tasks they were initially designed for – and the former program was scaled back, while in the latter, money has been wasted as the oldest LCS have been retired even as new ones are being built. It was only this year that the U.S. Navy introduced a minesweeping module for the LCS, while critics have pounced have argued it would have been cheaper to develop such a purpose-built warship from scratch.
Finally, it would seem that the services are now at risk of not making a decision on the future of the programs simply because they don't want to make a mistake by going forward with those efforts. The U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy need to get it right; and first decide if they're even on the right track.
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.
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