Photograph Source: Staff Sgt. Marianique Santos – Public Domain
What location is for real estate, timing is for politics. Under intense pressure from leaders of the Democratic Party, major donors and negative polls, President Biden finally withdrew as a candidate for re-election after long hesitation. On the Republican side, the Trump/Vance ticket continues its aggressive campaign after Donald Trump’s promising start at the Republican Convention degenerated into his usual rambling, incoherent style. A brief look back shows that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump missed game-changing opportunities in this unique campaign season.
For the Democrats, Biden’s withdrawal decision is generally welcomed. But the timing is unfortunate. Had he announced earlier, even after the disastrous debate, he would have been considered doing the best for the party and the country. His insistence on staying in the race up to one month before the August Democratic Convention was a missed opportunity. Remembering that he had announced himself as the transitional president, Biden could have bowed out gracefully as a one term president.
Biden’s many accomplishments as president and public servant are recognized as is his warm personality. George Clooney pointed to both in his New York Times op-ed. But neither explains why he waited so long. As an explanation, many point to his Irish perseverance which enabled him to overcome significant personal and political setbacks.
If Biden had withdrawn earlier, well before the primaries, there would have been a real contest for the Democratic Party’s nomination among several candidates, such as Governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer as well as Vice-President Kamala Harris. As it was, as incumbent president, Biden had an enormous primary advantage; he won every 2019/2020 primary by a large margin except in American Somoa.
Furthermore, by waiting so long after the primaries, Biden has made the current selection of Harris a foregone conclusion. Her unsuccessful 2020 presidential bid should haunt her current status as the consensus choice. She did not shine on the primary trail, nor, it seems, will she be tested up to and at the Democrat’s Convention. She has become the party’s candidate in a most undemocratic manner with no serious competition.
This could have been done differently. There is a precedent for an incumbent president declaring early that he will not run for re-election. When Lyndon Johnson disclosed he would not be running for re-election in 1968, he announced in March, well before the Party’s Convention. Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy (until his assassination) were able to compete in the primaries in a most democratic manner.
By staying in the race so long, Biden also reminds people of how Ruth Bader Ginsburg remained too long on the Supreme Court, allowing Donald Trump to name her successor instead of President Obama. The fact that Biden hesitated so long will forever be a mark against him, just as it is for Justice Ginsburg.
Biden’s perseverance is his strength, but also his greatest weakness.
Biden is not the only one to have missed an opportunity in this campaign. Trump missed an opportunity at the Republican Convention. Biden was then at his weakest soon after his catastrophic debate performance, and the failed assassination attempt gave Trump a considerable bump in the polls. At the time of the Republican Convention, the photo of Trump raising his fist chanting “Fight, fight, fight,” with blood dripping down his face was the dominant news headline. His polling at the moment of the Convention predicted a sure winner, even some forecasting a Republican November landslide.
It was all there for Trump, up until his acceptance speech. Many had expected a changed Trump, someone whose life-threatening experience would make him more sympathetic, more presidential for all Americans.
That’s how he started. He began by calling for unity, seeming to have radically changed since the shooting. But the speech quickly degenerated into his usual polarizing, vengeful, ad-lib rant. With an estimated 25 million viewers watching, Trump presented the longest acceptance speech on record. Media pictures of delegates in Milwaukee looking at their phones as Trump rambled on for 92 minutes quickly replaced the iconic photo of his raised fist among Secret Service agents in Bethel, Pennsylvania.
While Trump had been instinctively photogenic and media savvy at the moment of the shooting, the unscripted part of his acceptance speech was a huge missed opportunity. Had he played the role of the unifier, had he continued speaking in the measured tone he began with, had he continued to seem presidential, he would have continued to be the overwhelming favorite in November no matter whom the Democrats presented.
But Trump was Trump. His aggressive, unscripted style undercut what could have been a reflective, unifying address encouraging voters beyond his MAGA base. The undecided voters’ hopefully new-born and scripted Trump the Unifier quickly gave way to the usual off-the-cuff, over-the-top Donald the Divider.
Trump’s ad-lib aggressive style is his greatest strength, but also his greatest weakness.
So Biden was Biden staying in the race too long. And Trump was Trump rambling on about Us vs Them. Both missed opportunities because of their basic natures; Biden’s perseverance and Trump’s powerful ego. The two missed opportunities are causing the campaign to start all over again with both sides weakened and the country further destabilized and polarized.
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