They’re real, and they’re spectacular!
At 27 years old, Cincinnati Reds 2B Jonathan India is seemingly in his prime. His health in 2024 has rebounded after banged-up years in 2022 and 2023, the hamstring and plantar fasciitis issues he faced now clearly in the rear-view mirror. He’s producing like he did when he won the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year Award, the owner of a 120 OPS+, the 8th best OBP in the NL (.374), and the 7th best walk rate in the NL (12.8%).
He’s a very good offensive player.
He’s also a very good offensive player who plays a position in 2B where there aren’t many superstars across the league. Add-in that he’s on a team in the Reds who have routinely occupied last place in the NL Central of late, and it’s hardly surprising to hear his name floated in trade rumors given that the trade deadline is now just 5 days away.
The New York Yankees, for one, have interest. ESPN’s Jorge Castillo relayed as much last night, noting that their struggling infield could use a boost of India’s quality with the likes of Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu underperforming and Anthony Rizzo out with injury.
The Yankees should have interest! Most everyone should, really, which brings us to the finer points of why India, in particular, is finding his name back in trade rumors where it spent most of the offseason.
The Cincinnati Reds do not like to pay premiums for things they can find for cheaper. They have committed themselves to being as frugal as they can around their core and, for the most part, will only spend on the periphery to find things they simply don’t have. India signed a 2-year contract that bought out a pair of arbitration years earlier in 2024, and is making $3.8 million in ‘24 before earning just $5 million in 2025 - with 2026 a year where he’s still under team control before reaching free agency for 2027. That’s a lot of cheap control for a player who’s twice proven he can be an elite offensive player, with the injuries now a pretty clear reason why he underperformed in 2022-2023.
Even for the Reds, you’d think he’d be of great value. That’s a contract with more than one comma in it, yes, but that’s not bank-breaking even for them. However, when the roster of the Reds isn’t completely decimated with injuries, there are actually younger, cheaper options already in-house to replace him, with 2023’s breakout star Matt McLain chief among them. So while India is of great value to the Reds, the positional scarcity and lack of teams committed to selling at this deadline may well drive his price up so high the Reds, in their spoiled position, might well find themselves dealing him away.
MLB Network insider Jon Morosi chimed in with a similar echo this morning, noting the Seattle Mariners - another club with postseason aspirations and a dearth of quality offense - should be precisely the kind of club interested in India’s services. If only they were familiar with players in the Cincinnati system by now!
Jonathan India’s trade value is increasing, because of his own performance and the needs of suitors like the Yankees and Mariners.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2024
India has a .376 OBP when batting leadoff this season.
The Yankees have a .277 OBP in the leadoff spot, 2nd worst in @MLB. @MLBNetwork…
It’s this precise kind of decision that will face the Reds in the coming days: selling good players while avoiding being sellers. Roster balancing, if you will. Moving an India here, a Nick Martinez there, and impacting the current quality of the roster while not damaging it both for August of this year and, more importantly, for 2025 and beyond. That’s what a club who’s both a) four games under .500 but b) only 4.0 games out of a Wild Card spot should be doing, right?
Right?
As we wait for the returns of TJ Friedl, McLain, Brandon Williamson, Carson Spiers, and (fingers crossed) Graham Ashcraft, there’s certainly a thought that the Reds could shed India, Martinez, and even Frankie Montas and Lucas Sims and still not completely put a fork in this season. There’s a great likelihood that’s what would happen, but it’s not a certainty. There’s still enough talent in an otherwise moribund NL that, if things went great, could keep this team afloat long enough for the walking wounded to return and make a run. That’s the Disney version of how selling some of the guys on this roster could, in theory, help 2025 and beyond while still not totally punting 2024.
Do I think that scenario has any chance in hell of actually playing out? C’mon, this is the Cincinnati Reds we’re talking about.
Do I think that’s the likeliest outcome and the mouthspeak we’ll hear from the Reds front office when it happens?
I do. This is the Cincinnati Reds we’re talking about.
