Who wins Saturday’s big heavyweight battle in London?
I think this fight could be ugly fun to watch if all works out, but it might also wind up just sad at the other end of possibilities. That leaves a big middle between those two points, which is where it likely settles, a fight that happens and not much is memorable about it.
Chisora’s not much of a puncher at this level and fights in little bursts now, anyway, rarely putting together any sort of momentum. He doesn’t bring the pressure he used to, and if he tries, he’ll just be in the pocket for Joyce to pepper as he drains his own gas tank with the effort. He’s not going to land single shots that rattle Joyce the way Zhang could.
Chisora will probably spend a lot of time trying to stay out of range, and he’s still more mobile than Joyce, quicker on his feet despite not exactly being fleet of foot. I expect we go deep into the fight, though; Chisora’s crafty and smart enough to make that happen, with the idea that the later it goes, he’ll have openings. But he won’t, because he doesn’t really fight in a way that creates any. Joyce is straight-ahead and simple, but Chisora also won’t want to mix it up much. Joyce gets a late stoppage, but this could go an increasingly ugly distance. Joyce TKO-10
This is sort of a rock and a hard place kind of pick for me. On the one hand Joyce hasn’t really inspired much confidence as of late, perhaps as damaged goods, while Chisora’s best days are behind him as well. I don’t have much expectations for this fight either, as far as it being a fun action fight, because Chisora can’t really apply the sort of pressure he once could and Joyce isn’t going to set the ring on fire with his output either.
I do, however, expect that Joyce will come into this fight in better physical condition than Chisora, and that alone might be enough of an edge for him to take a win on the scorecards after a slogging 12 rounds. I’m going to take Joyce to win a decision here, but I don’t say that with any firm confidence. Joyce UD-12
Any knock on Joyce for possibly being too old, slow, limited, washed, past it if he ever had the talent to hang with the best in the first place, or whatever else you can think of applied to Chisora first. I think the worst case for Joyce after the Zhang knockouts is that he’s entering a new phase as the next Derek Chisora.
With Del Boy past 40 now and facing his potential 14th loss, someone has to be the UK’s slow, old, but durable guy who puts in a good effort, makes the people want to believe, but never quite has it against the actual top of the division. Chisora isn’t a new tripwire, he’s the Ghost of Christmas Future. Even if Joyce is already living in that future, he’s got enough to carry the day on Saturday. Joyce KO-7
There is no version of Joe Joyce that loses to this version of Derek Chisora. “Del Boy’s” entire strategy is to wade forward with his head down and sling heat, and while Joyce is far from his peak, Chisora is not and never will be a harder lad than Joyce. Even if Chisora did want to stay out of the pocket, he has neither the skill nor physical ability to exploit Joyce’s lack of speed and footwork.
I’m not sold on Chisora having a puncher’s chance, either; it’s a leap to suggest that falling to one of the division’s top-two hitters in Zhilei Zhang means Joyce can’t take a shot from someone with two knockouts in the last six years.
Joyce still has what it takes to brutalize a largely stationary target and Chisora lacks the thump to make him hesitant. “The Juggernaut” forces a mercy stoppage around the halfway point. Joyce TKO-6
