Tracking some data to show where the Pens need to get better
Last season the Pittsburgh Penguins finished with a record of 38-32-12, good for 88 points in the NHL’s standing system. Breaking it down, here was their record over 2023-24 against each individual team.
Here’s some wrinkles from this data:
Pittsburgh accumulated 48 of their 88 points against non-playoff teams, which makes good enough sense on the surface. It’s easier to beat the bad teams, and tougher to win against the strong teams. However, the Pens only managed a 17-19-6 record against teams headed to the playoffs — only a full season pace of 78 points. This information doesn’t contain any revelations but is worth sharing anyways; the Pens will have to be better against good teams if they are going to rise to the top of the playoff bubble.
As to be expected, the Pens fattened up on the lower half of the league, putting up a 22-13-6 record (100 point pace) against 2023-24 non-playoff teams. Expand that out further to the true dregs of the league in the worst five teams (SJ, CHI, ANA, CBJ, MTL) and the picture becomes even clearer with the Penguins putting up a 10-2-1 record against the lowest of the low of the rebuilders who mostly weren’t in a position to ice competitive lineups last season.
The divisional games in the NHL are the most important matchups, since it contains the rivals who directly benefit when the Pens lose to them, and the ones Pittsburgh can incur pain upon by defeating them. The Pens were 13-8-5 against the Metropolitan division, as many wins as losses in totality but the OT/SO losses help boost that to being a 97 point pace. There were some unimpressive performances along the way (the blowout loss to Washington and a 1-2-0 record against New Jersey in what was a down year for them), but over the Pens acquitted themselves well in the division. Turning a 2-1-1 record against a Carolina team that is a perennial problem for Pittsburgh (and so many in the regular season) was one of the more impressive feats in an otherwise forgettable season. So too was a 2-1-1 turnaround against a NYI team that had become a nightmare for the Pens.
Moving to the out of conference games shows the biggest opportunity from improvement for Pittsburgh next season. Each NHL team plays its opposite conference 32 total times (twice each against all 16 OOC teams), which eats up a big chunk of the 82 game season. The Pens were only 15-14-3 (an 84.5 point full-season pace) against the Western clubs.
Shrink it to the eight Western teams that made the playoffs and the picture becomes more dire. The Pens only managed six wins in 16 games for a 6-7-3 record (77 point pace) against the best of the West. That was highlighted by going a combined 0-4-0 against the future Western Conference finalists, Edmonton and Dallas, including some very emphatic and lopsided affairs.
Then again, results were only marginally better against Eastern playoff teams in 2023-24, which saw Pittsburgh have a 79 point season pace (11-12-4) and a forgettable 1-4-1 record against NYR and Florida, the top surviving Eastern teams in the postseason.
Add it up and that makes for a 1-8-1 record in 10 tries against class of the NHL, painting a very sobering picture about the Pens’ talent level and inability to find traction against the best of the best.
The Pens are stuck in the muddy middle, so looking at the 11 teams in the NHL that finished +/- 10 points of them (BUF, CGY, DET, MIN, NYI, PHI, SEA, STL, TBL, VGK, WASH) saw Pittsburgh did OK but not that great with a 16-12-3 record. That’s a 92ish point pace against similar mid-level clubs that will keep them right in the mix, but not good enough to settle into the top half of the conference, considering these teams finished 13-25th in league standings this year.
In some ways the data might tell us things we already know, but seeing the numbers reinforces the reality that Pittsburgh is in. To improve in 2024-25, they’ll need to play better against the quality teams and get more results against non-conference opponents than they got this past season. In many ways, that will be easier said than done, but the road map for getting back into a playoff spot for the Pens will be to more or less continue what they did against division teams and the weak opponents and try to find a way to get some modest gains against the NHL’s top teams.
