The Oscar for Best Visual Effects is particularly tough to predict because of the complicated system by which the nominees are determined in three stages. The members of the executive committee of the branch cast preferential ballots to determine 20 films for further consideration. These are then winnowed down to 10 semi-finalists, which will be announced on December 17, 2024. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2025 Oscars Best Visual Effects predictions.)
All members of the branch are invited to a virtual screening of excerpts from these 10 films in January at which potential nominees may discuss their work. Ballots are counted using a system of re-weighted range voting to determine the five nominees, which will be revealed on January 17. The entire voting membership of the academy will then vote for the winners, which will be revealed during the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on March 2.
When it comes to picking the winner of Best Visual Effects, you can’t go wrong with the film that is most reliant on effects to tell its story. Recent winners “Godzilla Minus One” (2024), “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2023), “Dune” (2022), “Tenet” (2021), “Blade Runner 2049” (2018), “The Jungle Book” (2017), “Gravity” (2014), “Life of Pi” (2013), “Avatar” (2010) and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (2009) would have been impossible to make without the advent of computer-generated effects. Titles that blend such CGI with old-school practical effects, such as “1917” (2020), “First Man” (2019), “Interstellar” (2015), “Hugo” (2012), and “Inception” (2011), have also prevailed in recent times.
Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2025 Oscars Best Picture predictions.
“Godzilla Minus One” made history by winning the “Godzilla” franchise its first-ever Academy Award. All three films in “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy — “The Fellowship of the Ring,” “The Two Towers,” and “The Return of the King” — won this race. That ties the Middle Earth franchise with the “Star Wars” universe, which prevailed for its first three entries: “A New Hope” (1978), “The Empire Strikes Back” (1981), and “Return of the Jedi” (1984).
“Alien” (“Alien” in 1980, “Aliens” in 1987) “Avatar” (“Avatar” in 2010, “”Avatar: The Way of Water” in 2023), “Indiana Jones” (“Raiders of the Lost Ark” in 1982, “The Temple of Doom” in 1985), and “King Kong” (“King Kong” in 1977, “King Kong” in 2006) all won a pair of prizes.
The most recognized franchise is the MCU, which has reaped a whopping 14 bids. “Iron Man,” “Iron Man 2,” “The Avengers,” “Iron Man 3,” “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Doctor Strange,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” “Avengers: Infinity War,” “Avengers: Endgame,” “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rins,” “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.” But not one of those movies managed to convert their citation into a victory.
Dennis Muren has the record for most wins (8) and most nominations (15): He prevailed for “The Empire Strikes Back” (1981), “E.T.” (1983), “Return of the Jedi” (1984), “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” (1985), “Innerspace” (1988), “The Abyss” (1990), “Terminator 2: Judgement Day” (1992), and “Jurassic Park” (1994).
We often talk about how academy voters can be quite snobby — not nominating franchise movies or popcorn movies for the biggest categories. That rings true when you look at films that have won both Best Visual Effects and Best Picture. Only two films have won both of these categories this century — “Gladiator” in 2001 and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” in 2004. Ironically, we will have a sequel to the former movie competing at next year’s Oscars with “Gladiator II” set to be a big awards player. That movie will be one of several major competitors for this award. Scroll down below for a full breakdown of movies we think could win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars.
Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2025 Oscars Best Picture predictions.
UPDATED: July 24, 2024
LEADING CONTENDERS
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros./Universal)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Liong King” (Disney)
STRONG CONTENDERS
“A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount Pictures)
“Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios/Warner Bros.)
“Here” (Sony Pictures)
“Twisters” (Universal)
“Wicked” (Universal)
POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
“Civil War” (A24)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Disney)
“Godzilla X Kong: A New Empire” (Warner Bros.)
“Horizon: An American Saga” (Warner Bros.)
“Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features/Universal)
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