One of Donald Trump’s pollsters is possibly putting his job on the line by actually telling the truth to the volatile, truth-challenged former president.
Pollster Tony Fabrizio has issued a memo to the Trump campaign that warns of a “honeymoon” for Vice President Kamala Harris, the newly declared presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
In the memo, which was shared with reporters, Fabrizio points out that the wall-to-wall media coverage of Harris that has occurred since President Joe Biden announced on Sunday he wouldn’t be running for reelection would likely result in a “Harris Honeymoon” in public polling.
“The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energise Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term,” Fabrizio said. “That means we will start to see public polling — particularly national public polls — where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump.”
Real Clear Politics currently has Trump ahead of Harris by about two points, well within the margin of error.
Although Trump received a boost with voters after the Republican National Convention and the assassination attempt, Fabrizio said the fact that Biden is the first major party candidate to bow out less than four months from Election Day put the election in “uncharted territory.”
“Given what has happened over the past couple of days and her impending VP choice, there is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrat’s Convention,” Fabrizio said. “And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down.”
Campaign boosts like the one suggested by Fabrizio are common during an election, but Fabrizio obviously wants to manage expectations with Trump, so he included things that might seem more positive to the former president.
“The Democrats deposing one Nominee for another does NOT change voters discontent over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs not to mention concern over two foreign wars,” he said. “Before long, Harris’ ‘honeymoon’ will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden’s partner and co-pilot.”
HuffPost reached out to Fabrizio and the Trump campaign for comment, but no one immediately responded.
You can read the complete memo below:
Trump campaign just put out a memo from pollster Tony Fabrizio engaging in some expectations-setting re: new national polls (like today's Reuters poll).
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) July 23, 2024
"that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down" pic.twitter.com/2MrjvhEGgH
