MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Carina (Gaemi) was already moving over the sea east of Taiwan on Tuesday evening, July 23, but wind and rainfall warnings remain in effect for parts of Northern Luzon due to the tropical cyclone’s wide circulation.

Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), given its proximity to Northern Luzon.

As of 10 pm on Tuesday, Carina was located 335 kilometers northeast of Basco, Batanes, or 320 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.

The typhoon has since accelerated, moving north northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

Since Tuesday afternoon, it has had maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h and gustiness of up to 185 km/h. PAGASA said, however, that Carina may still strengthen and reach its peak intensity by Wednesday, July 24.

Only the following areas remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm on Tuesday:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Batanes

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Babuyan Islands
• northern part of mainland Cagayan (Claveria, Santa Praxedes, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Burgos, Bangui, Pagudpud, Dumalneg, Adams)

Meanwhile, Batanes and Babuyan Islands are the only areas expected to still have rain from Carina on Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters) will hit these areas.

Even as Carina heads for Taiwan, it is still enhancing the southwest monsoon or habagat.

Rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon will persist in several areas on Wednesday, then gradually ease in the succeeding days. Affected areas must stay on alert for floods and landslides.

Wednesday, July 24

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Calamian Islands

Thursday, July 25

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro

Friday, July 26

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Zambales, Bataan

Strong to gale-force gusts from the enhanced southwest monsoon will also be felt in these regions and provinces:

Wednesday, July 24

• Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao

Thursday, July 25

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, IIocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar

In addition, a gale warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northeastern part of Cagayan, specifically Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, and Buguey. Travel is risky for small boats due to rough to very rough seas (waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high).

Carina and the enhanced southwest monsoon will also cause rough seas on Wednesday in the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon outside the areas covered by the gale warning and in the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high).

PAGASA added that moderate to rough seas are expected in the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon (waves 2 to 3 meters high), western seaboards of Luzon (waves 2 to 3.5 meters high), southern seaboards of Southern Luzon (waves 2 to 3.5 meters high), western and eastern seaboards of the Visayas (waves 2 to 3.5 meters high), and eastern seaboard of Mindanao (waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high).

The weather bureau advised small boats not to venture out to sea.

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While Carina did not make landfall in the Philippines, it might make landfall in the northern part of Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon or early evening. It would then “cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan” and leave PAR on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, July 25.

Outside PAR, “Carina will cross the Taiwan Strait and make its final landfall over southeastern China on Thursday morning or early afternoon,” PAGASA said.

“Its landfall over northern Taiwan will trigger a weakening trend for the rest of the forecast period,” the weather bureau added.

Carina is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2024 and the second for July. PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones during the month. – Rappler.com