Political scientists told BI that Donald Trump may have good reason to regret choosing JD Vance as his running mate now that Joe Biden is out of the race.
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According a tweet from The Atlantic's Tim Alberta, allies of former President Donald Trump say there's been some second-guessing about the selection of Sen. JD Vance as Trump's running mate — especially now that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to lead the Democratic ticket.
Most striking thing I heard from Trump allies yesterday was the second-guessing of JD Vance—a selection, they acknowledged, that was borne of cockiness, meant to run up margins with the base in a blowout rather than persuade swing voters in a nail-biter.https://t.co/MskTPjvVSS
— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) July 22, 2024
Four political scientists told Business Insider that Trump's camp has legitimate reasons to be worried.
According to Alberta's story in The Atlantic, President Joe Biden's exit from the presidential race has forced Trump's team to reset their strategy.
Initially, Trump's allies said they were confident in their campaign plan, which was designed to defeat Biden.
The Atlantic reported that Trump's team chose JD Vance to try to capitalize on their early success, aiming to run up the margins of MAGA support in a "blowout" election rather than persuade swing voters.
Thomas Gift, director of UCL's Centre on US Politics, told BI that Trump's selection of Vance was "a confident — some might say too confident" decision.
"Doubling down on mobilizing the MAGA base for a candidate who already has the base eating out of the palm of his hand never seemed like the best tactical play," he said.
Angelia R. Wilson, the author of "The Politics of Hate" and a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, agreed that Harris' likely replacement of Biden has exposed new weaknesses in the Trump-Vance ticket.
She noted that with Biden leading the Democratic ticket, Trump and Vance could effectively criticize Biden's age and competency.
But with Harris as the candidate, they would need to focus on other topics.
Wilson suggested the Trump team would try to exploit divisions around race and gender, which, she noted, is "going to lose them votes with suburban soccer moms," among other voters.
Colin Talbot, professor emeritus of politics at the University of Manchester, told BI that he thinks Trump's all-male ticket is at great risk of losing the "independent, middle-ground women's votes."
In recent days, a 2021 clip has resurfaced of Vance describing Harris as one of the "childless cat ladies" who is "miserable" with her life and who has no stake in the future of America because she has not had children.
(Harris has two stepchildren with her husband, Doug Emhoff)
And in the ongoing debate over reproductive rights, Harris has been an outspoken pro-choice advocate, while Vance told a podcast in 2022 that he wanted to see abortion be made "illegal nationally."
Talbot said that Trump selected Vance when he thought he had the election "in the bag," but now the "mistake" of not balancing the ticket, either ideologically or by gender, is in full view.
According to Kevin Fahey, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nottingham, there's another reason why Trump world's reported second-guessing of Vance might not be unwarranted: his public speaking abilities.
This election cycle has shown how one poor performance can significantly damage a candidate's reputation.
While Vance's first solo campaign rally in Virginia on Monday wasn't as disastrous or widely watched as Biden's debate performance, Fahey told Business Insider it still revealed a potential weakness.
A joke about Diet Mountain Dew fell flat. Later, Vance stumbled over his speech and mumbled some nervous laughter. Democrats were quick to pounce on the awkward moment.
Further slip-ups at the microphone could undermine Vance's star power next to someone as skilled at firing up rally attendees as Trump.
"He doesn't have the charisma of somebody like Donald Trump," Fahey added.
Although speaking skills aren't everything, Fahey also noted that Vance doesn't have a lengthy legislative record to fall back on, nor any proof that can even outperform Trump in Ohio.
Beyond his loyalty to Trump, Fahey said, "Vance adds nothing to the Republican ticket."
