U.S. cuts to greenhouse gas emissions will fall short of Paris Climate Agreement goals by as much as 18 percent under the current trajectory, according to a report published Tuesday by the Rhodium Group.
The 194-country compact, which the Biden administration re-entered after the Trump administration withdrew from it, calls for the U.S. to cut emissions by half compared to 2005 levels by 2030. However, the U.S. is set to miss the mark based on current policies and statutes for an overall emissions reduction of 32 percent to 43, according to the report, with the cut increasing to as much as 56 percent over the next five years.
The report’s authors attribute much of the progress on emissions cuts to the Inflation Reduction Act, noting that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions were down 18 percent from 2005 levels in 2023. Even the shortfall projected by the report is an improvement from 2022 Rhodium Group projections, which predicted a reduction between 24 percent and 35 percent.
The report notes that despite the projected shortfall, renewable energy investment has exploded in recent years to 5.1 percent of nationwide private investments in the first fiscal quarter of this year, and much of that investment is likely to continue regardless of political outcomes.
However, the authors note that the market is likely to be “highly responsive” to politics and policy in the years ahead. There are also likely to be a number of court challenges to federal regulations as a result of the recent Supreme Court decision overturning the so-called Chevron doctrine, which gives federal agencies broad discretion in interpreting federal statutes.
“Given the extent to which much of the ground gained in emissions abatement in this year’s [report] is a function of these regulations, we will carefully watch to see which rules hold and which do not,” the authors wrote.
